VTB is forecasting a slowdown in the growth rate of retail loans in Russia during the fourth quarter of 2023, a forecast made in the context of an uptick in the Central Bank’s key rate. The assessment was shared by Deputy Chairman Georgy Gorshkov at a media briefing on the sidelines of an investment forum. The information originates from TASS. In examining the near-term outlook, the bank suggests that tighter monetary policy will weigh on the pace of new retail lending, even as the overall appetite for consumer credit remains a factor in the economy.
According to VTB’s forecast, the issuance of retail loans in the fourth quarter is expected to decline by about 16% quarter over quarter, reaching roughly 4.1 trillion rubles. Gorshkov attributed this anticipated deceleration to the ongoing monetary policy tightening, underscoring that the trend is likely to persist despite such policy actions. The forecast reflects a cautious lending environment where lenders assess risk and households adjust their borrowing plans in response to higher borrowing costs and tighter financial conditions.
Looking further ahead, VTB’s overall projection for 2023 envisions personal loan sales in Russia rising by 57% over the year, excluding point-of-sale POS loans, and surpassing 16 trillion rubles. The bank noted that in the first 11 months of the year, Russians issued loans totaling 14.8 trillion rubles, up 65% year over year, with 2.5 trillion rubles extended directly to citizens. This level of activity is described as being 1.6 times higher than the figure from the previous year, signaling a sustained high demand for credit across various consumer segments.
A VTB representative highlighted that the principal contribution to market growth came from mortgage lending and auto loans. He also pointed out that the strong performance to date owes much to the momentum built in the first three quarters of the year, noting that the base effects from that period helped shape the current lending landscape. This nuance underscores how different product categories contribute unevenly to overall consumer credit growth, with mortgages and vehicle financing leading the charge while other segments respond to evolving household credit needs.
In coverage of broader market signals, industry observers have noted the potential for increased stress in certain consumer segments within Russia, hinting at a landscape where rising living costs and tighter credit conditions could translate into higher risk of borrower distress for some households. This context aligns with cautionary tones often heard in financial analyses when credit expansion runs ahead of underlying income growth and macroeconomic stability. At the same time, Russia’s banks continue to seek balance between sustaining loan originations and maintaining prudent underwriting standards as credit demand evolves.
Earlier, Sberbank reported a continued slowdown in consumer loan growth during November, reinforcing a pattern of moderated credit expansion across financial institutions. The sector-wide dynamics, set against a backdrop of macroeconomic shifts, suggest that lenders are recalibrating appetites for consumer credit in response to policy, risk, and demand conditions that shape the financing landscape for households and businesses alike. The ongoing narrative of credit activity remains a focal point for market watchers and policymakers as they assess the trajectory of household leverage and its implications for economic growth. (Source: TASS; Source: VTB)