Analysts note that Europe could see gas prices swing into a broad band around $600 to $800 per thousand cubic meters in the upcoming fall, contingent on how the season shapes up. A heat wave or an early cold snap could push prices toward the higher end of that range as storage and supply plans are tested ahead of the heating season. This assessment comes from a market analyst affiliated with Finam, Sergey Kaufman, speaking to RIA Novosti on the topic.
Forecasts suggest that the price path at the start of the heating period will largely follow weather patterns. If summer turns trend warmer and heating demand is delayed, the likelihood grows that prices will hover in the $600 to $800 range per thousand cubic meters. Kaufman emphasizes that weather remains the dominant driver, influencing both storage decisions and consumption patterns as utilities and manufacturers prepare for the cold months ahead.
In Kaufman’s view, absent any weather anomalies or unforeseen disruptions, natural gas could settle in a much lower corridor of about $200 to $300 per thousand cubic meters. He also points out that LNG supply remains elevated, while Chinese import demand has not surged as some forecasters anticipated. These factors together could allow Europe to brace for winter with greater stability in energy costs, provided there are no major shocks on the geopolitical or logistical fronts.
The outlook for energy profits is also noted. Oil and gas companies with pricing exposed business models may see earnings dip this year as market volatility and macro factors influence margins. The evolving price environment could affect exploration, production schedules, and investment plans across the sector, prompting operators to reassess risk across portfolios and regions.
On a wider scale, the European Union has begun implementing a collective approach to gas procurement. A joint purchasing mechanism aims to bolster storage filling in preparation for the heating season and to dampen price spikes through coordinated buying. This policy move is expected to contribute to lower fuel costs over time, supporting member states as they manage inventories and ensure steady supply for households and industries alike. The steps reflect a strategic shift toward increased market resilience and energy security as Europe navigates a transitional period for its energy mix. [Attribution: RIA Novosti report summarizing EU policy actions and market expectations.]