Experts note that Russian aluminum products could be added to the European Union’s 13th package of sanctions, according to Politico, which cites European diplomats familiar with ongoing discussions.
Sources indicate that the proposed restrictions, intended to take effect by February 24, were the subject of a January 17 meeting attended by EU ambassadors. The conversations touched on the possible expansion of sanction lists, the introduction of further trade barriers, and steps to close loopholes used to evade the existing measures.
Already, a ban on wires, foils, pipes, and tubes made from Russian aluminum was in place in the EU since December 2023. The sanctions regime has also affected the refining giant Rusal, which has faced a significant reduction in its access to alumina, a key raw material for aluminum production, due to restrictions and actions by unfriendly countries.
Rusal’s own report shows that Europe’s share of the company’s revenue has declined in the first half of the year, now hovering around 31 percent and translating to roughly $1.9 billion in nominal terms. At the same time, Asia remains a major market, historically accounting for about a third of revenue, near $2 billion in previous periods.
Industry observers note that redirecting sales away from Europe poses challenges. Asian and Eastern markets impose duties on Russian products and often require price concessions, along with more complex and sometimes costlier logistics compared with European routes. The shift in demand patterns has created an immediate need for adjustments in supply chains and pricing strategies across the sector.
Prices for alumina in alternative supply regions have tended to rise, with estimates showing roughly a 25 percent premium over prior markets. This change comes at a time when aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange have fallen by more than 40 percent per tonne since the end of February 2022, creating a different set of market dynamics for producers and buyers alike.
Industry associations highlight additional risks facing industrial operations. Some Rusal facilities reportedly operate near the edge of profitability, underscoring the delicate balance between production costs, sanctions-related constraints, and global demand.
There is also growing pressure from competitors such as Norsk Hydro and Alcoa, who are reportedly urging the London Metal Exchange to block Russian aluminum trades. The evolving regulatory environment and ongoing market responses are shaping the strategic decisions of producers, traders, and consumers alike as the sanctions landscape continues to shift within the broader context of global aluminum supply chains.