EU braces for a scorching summer
Across European nations, unusually high temperatures are expected to begin in June, with the southern parts of the continent feeling the impact first. Regions including Italy, Greece and Spain are likely to experience a notable drought that stretches into the summer. Yevgeny Tishkovets, a leading forecaster from the Phobos Weather Center, indicated that average temperatures for June through August could rise above normal by several degrees.
“In June, the climate norm in many parts of Central and Southern Europe will be surpassed by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius. The sharpest deviations will be seen in Spain, southern France, portions of Italy and the Balkan Peninsula. In July, the temperatures are projected to be 0.5 to 1 degree above average across most European countries, with August following a similar pattern. Spain and France could again exceed norms by around 2 degrees,” Tishkovets noted.
He also warned that the southern regions should anticipate a prolonged and unusual drought this month.
June is expected to be the most challenging month for Spain, Bulgaria, Southern France, Balkan nations, Italy, Greece and Romania. The rainfall deficit could average between 60 and 80 percent of the monthly norm. A heatwave will dominate much of the early summer, with July bringing a shift toward heavier rainfall while keeping temperatures above typical levels. In most areas, the heat will persist, though Spain and France may see even stronger departures from normal values, according to the forecaster.
Alexander Shuvalov, head of the Meteo Prognostic Center, concurs that the trend of rising temperatures linked to global warming is affecting the European Union as well.
“Over the past five decades, global warming has contributed about a 1.2 degree Celsius increase. Extreme heat events have intensified accordingly.”
Forecasts suggest Western European nations will endure a pronounced heatwave this summer, with average temperatures staying well above seasonal norms. In such extended hot spells, overall heat levels may push the average beyond the climate norm by 4 to 5 degrees, and peak readings in the southernmost regions could approach 40 degrees Celsius, Shuvalov added.
Projected rise in electricity use
Elevated temperatures in many European countries from June to August could lift household and public sector electricity consumption. Sergey Kondratiev, deputy head of the Economics Department at the Institute of Energy and Finance, noted that the demand for cooling equipment will likely grow in homes and apartment blocks.
“Air conditioning is the main driver of higher energy use during hot periods. On days when temperatures hover around 30 to 32 degrees, daytime electricity demand can rise by roughly 10 to 15 percent compared with cooler spells.”
A critical question concerns possible restrictions on air conditioner use during heatwaves in EU states. Spain has already signaled that certain public spaces and facilities may curb cooling measures, a move aimed at curbing electricity costs amid rising retail prices. In Germany, residential electricity charges are approximately 30 euro cents per kilowatt-hour, Kondratiev observed.
Kondratyev explained that stable operation of cooling systems during the heatwave has depended largely on gas supply. The hot season in 2022 would impose costs on EU economies estimated around 8 to 10 billion euros if no savings were achieved. If a ruble-denominated payment option for Russian gas is considered, costs could exceed 10 billion euros. Without additional imports from Moscow, EU markets would need LNG from other suppliers, including Saudi Arabia, potentially driving up prices further.
Looking ahead, the expert suggested that the only feasible way to bolster European gas reserves would be to raise allocations from Russia. This approach offers a faster, cheaper path than alternative Middle East routes. Sanctions have already reduced flows through several corridors, and capacity constraints imply that any replenishment would come with higher costs. The Sunzha transit corridor could offer a modest increase in daily gas deliveries, though overall gains would be limited under current conditions.
In the near term, the EU may be able to boost Russian gas by tens of millions of cubic meters per day, but the total for the summer would still be constrained. Rapid refilling of underground storage facilities would be essential to cover the autumn and winter period, one analyst noted. Citizens can expect a push to conserve energy this summer, with many households unable to rely on air conditioning. For energy-intensive industries, additional gas resources will be necessary to avoid disruptions in production. If Russian transit declines, the more expensive LNG route will carry extra costs that ripple through the European economy, Koltashov warned.