The economies of Central Asian nations are projected to show strong momentum through 2023 and 2024, with GDP expanding by 4.9 percent in 2023 and around 5.4 percent in 2024 according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The assessment highlights several countries in the region including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as key contributors to this growth trend. Tajikistan is forecast to lead with about an 8 percent rise in GDP, followed by Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia each around 7 percent, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are both expected to reach roughly 6.5 percent growth. These projections are based on the bank’s analysis of current conditions and future outlooks for the region.
The EBRD press release notes that the anticipated 4.9 percent uptick in Central Asian production for 2023 will be followed by a stronger performance of 5.4 percent in 2024. The drivers behind this acceleration include planned infrastructure investments, favorable commodity prices, and the steady relocation of Russian business activities to the region. In addition to investment in physical infrastructure, rising export prices for energy and minerals are contributing to higher production levels, helping to lift overall economic activity across the region.
Several factors are shaping the robust growth outlook for Central Asia. Exporters of oil and gas are benefiting from higher prices, which supports government revenues and investment capacity. Labor inflows from neighboring countries and remittances continue to play a meaningful role in household income and consumption. Investments aimed at expanding economic capacity, together with increases in intermediary trade, are also cited as important growth catalysts by the EBRD analysts.
The report also covers developments beyond Central Asia, noting a projected contraction in the Russian economy during 2023 driven by lower oil prices and Western sanctions. The forecast indicates a further modest decline in Russia’s GDP in 2024, underscoring the broader regional implications for energy markets, trade routes, and investment flows that influence neighboring economies in Europe and Asia.
In summary, the EBRD evaluation points to a favorable near-term growth path for Central Asia with a continued transition that benefits from capital deepening, rising energy demand, and strategic shifts in business location. The combination of infrastructure upgrades, commodity market dynamics, and regional integration is expected to sustain momentum in the region well into 2024 and beyond, shaping a more resilient economic landscape for the countries involved.