ECB Holds Line as Inflation Risks Persist, Rate Paths Extend

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The European Central Bank is not planning to shift its monetary policy path after lifting interest rates for a seventh consecutive time at its May gathering, according to a detailed report from Kommersant. The central bank is expected to continue tightening policy, with rate increases anticipated at least through the next two meetings. The decision signals the policy makers’ belief that inflation pressures remain stubborn and could surprise to the upside if left unchecked. In the May decision, the ECB raised key rates by 0.25 percentage point, lifting the main refinancing rate to 3.75 percent, the deposit facility to 3.25 percent, and the margin loan rate to 4.0 percent. This move keeps borrowing costs elevated and reinforces the central bank’s commitment to fight price growth that is proving difficult to tame.

Kommersant’s analysis emphasizes that the ECB is prepared to keep raising rates further, driven by the risk that inflation could accelerate again. Market participants have priced in additional rate hikes across at least two future meetings, a pattern that underscores the bank’s focus on bringing inflation back toward its 2 percent target. The central bank has repeatedly warned that inflation could stay higher for longer unless monetary policy remains restrictive. This stance is consistent with the ECB’s long-standing objective of restoring price stability and anchoring inflation expectations, even if it means a slower pace of economic growth in the near term.

The ECB has stated that price stability is essential for sustainable prosperity in the euro area. The central bank’s communications point to a belief that the current monetary stance is still necessary to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. As policy makers view the risks to inflation as weighted to the upside, they are likely to maintain rates at elevated levels for an extended period, a phrase echoed by officials who stress that the timeline for any potential easing remains uncertain. The central bank continues to monitor a wide range of indicators, including wage dynamics, supply chain resilience, and the domestic demand outlook, as it calibrates the pace of future rate changes.

Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB, highlighted the ongoing risks of faster price growth. Lagarde indicated that the central bank still has progress to make in curbing price hikes and that the path to price stability will require vigilance and patience. Her remarks reflect a shared stance among policymakers that inflation has not yet returned to acceptable levels, and that policy must stay tightening until there is clear evidence that inflation is converging toward the 2 percent objective.

In euro zone terms, consumer prices have shown that inflation remains far from the 2 percent goal. Recent data indicate that euro area inflation stood at 6.9 percent in March and rose to 7 percent on an annual basis in April, underscoring the challenge of service and goods price pressures. These figures reinforce the ECB’s cautious but steadfast approach to policy normalization. Market observers note that the rate path will depend on how price dynamics evolve, as well as how external factors such as energy prices and global growth contribute to domestic inflation. The ECB’s stance, grounded in a strong commitment to price stability, suggests that vigilance will continue to shape the decisions of policymakers over the coming meetings, even if the economy shows signs of tempering growth.

Taken together, the May decision and the accompanying communications illustrate a central bank that prioritizes inflation containment over rapid stabilization of growth. The ECB’s approach aims to preserve purchasing power and financial stability across the euro area, while acknowledging that higher interest rates can dampen investment and spending in the near term. In this context, the central bank’s guidance points to a period of sustained restrictive policy until inflation moves decisively toward the target, with the possibility of further adjustments if inflation proves more persistent than anticipated. The ongoing dialogue between the ECB and market participants reflects a shared view that price stability remains the cornerstone of durable economic strength for the eurozone, and that the road to that goal will require patience, decisiveness, and a careful balance between risk and opportunity.

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