Colombian Stock Market Moves Amid Elections and Global Tensions
Around 9:30 am, the Msci Colcap index advanced by 0.63 percent, breaking the 1,600 point milestone. This gauge, which tracks the most liquid components on the Colombian Stock Exchange, edged down slightly to 1,590 points the previous day.
The index has gained 13.57 percent so far this year and 4.88 percent in March. From November through February, its growth was driven by takeover bids, rising 10.07 percent, while January added 8.92 percent before a 0.59 percent dip in February.
The top performer among stocks was ConConcreto, climbing 1.81 percent to 312.50. Éxito gained 1.66 percent to 17,790; Ecopetrol rose from 1.44 percent to 3,586; Grupo Argos advanced 1.11 percent to 13,680; Bancolombia moved 1.10 percent higher to 39,430 and the iShares ETF increased 0.68 percent to 16,200.
The biggest decliners included Corficolombiana, down 0.35 percent to 28,100; Grupo Argos Preferred fell 0.32 percent to 9,330; Interconexion Electric SA slipped 0.13 percent to 23,870; and Grupo Energía Bogotá eased 0.04 percent to 2,480.
Five central themes shaped market dynamics: political events in the run-up to elections, the presentation of a fresh wave of takeover bids by Sura and Nutresa, corporate earnings results from issuers, and ongoing international tensions, notably the Russia–Ukraine conflict and elevated oil prices.
On the political front, investors watched campaign activity amid economic uncertainty over fiscal directions and the balance of foreign and local investment. A market trend of the past two weeks showed the index lingering near the 1,500 to 1,600 point range, a sign of risk aversion and indecision that many see as a negative signal for strong upside movement. Valeria Álvarez, a variable income analyst at Itaú Comisionista de Bolsa, noted that the composition of the Senate and the broader political landscape influence market sentiment.
The ongoing suspension of Nutresa and Sura shares by the Colombian Financial Authority, the SFC, marks the third halt since November 2021 and continues to inject liquidity into the market. Arnoldo Casas, Investments Director at Credicorp Capital, observed that the market impact of takeover bids is becoming more marginal as these moves play out.
Third, the forthcoming earnings reports from BVC issuers are expected to act as catalysts for buyers seeking higher returns after a year of strong profits. The market recently benefited from a 2021 GDP growth figure of 10.6 percent, fueling optimism around corporate profitability levels that underpin equity valuations.
Global tensions and the oil price surge added another layer of uncertainty. The backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine contributed to heightened market volatility, a factor echoed across regions. A day after the sessions began, global equities and stock futures declined while bonds and oil advanced. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 1.7 percent and 2.3 percent respectively, suggesting persisting pressure in technology stocks. The Stoxx 600 European index slipped 2.5 percent, and Asian markets touched their lowest levels since 2020. Russian equities also posted notable declines in the wake of trading suspensions.
Oil and natural gas price movements further fed inflationary concerns. Analysts underscored that inflation could intensify as central banks respond with higher rates, a stance that could constrain growth. Edward Park, chief investment officer at British firm Brooks Macdonald, warned that rate hikes aimed at taming inflation may weigh on economic expansion.
Credicorp Capital notes that, at these price levels, Ecopetrol may provide the next meaningful contribution to portfolios, reflecting a perception that the stock has not fully priced in potential political risk ahead of the elections.