A Russian economist from GV Plekhanov, an associate professor in the Department of Entrepreneurship and Logistics, recently explained in an interview with socialbites.ca that a worldwide cocoa shortage is likely to keep chocolate prices from rising in Russia for at least two months. The expert, Igor Stroganov, highlighted that current store shelves and production lines still reflect older price levels because purchases were made at prior costs.
Stroganov noted that any near-term price uptick would hinge on whether producers and retailers decide to hedge against future losses. In his view, a fresh batch of chocolate products will inevitably be pricier, as companies typically avoid selling at a loss and must cover rising input costs and operating expenses.
According to the economist, the magnitude of any increase could vary widely. It would depend on each producer and intermediary, their long-term market plans, and their willingness to adjust to evolving consumer demand. He also pointed out that there is always the option to substitute expensive natural ingredients with more affordable imitations when needed.
Looking ahead, Stroganov suggested that shoppers should expect to read nutrition and ingredient labels more carefully and to consider consuming fewer sweets. He framed this as a potential health benefit that could accompany dietary changes in the broader market over time.
Notably, cocoa bean prices on the commodity exchange spiked to a historical high, a trend that underscores the broader volatility facing confectionery supply chains. The analyst emphasized that these dynamics are not confined to Russia; they influence global markets and the price granularity seen in shelves around North America as well. Attribution: Economist, Department of Entrepreneurship and Logistics, Russian University of Economics
Overall, the forecast suggests a period of stabilization rather than immediate relief for chocolate buyers, with the possibility of gradual price adjustments as manufacturers balance input costs, consumer tolerance, and competitive positioning in a challenging economic landscape.