UBS Group’s latest outlook for the Chinese economy in 2025 shows slower growth, revised from about 4 percent to roughly 3.4 percent, as new US import policies influence global trade flows. The downgrade reflects the risk that tighter trade rules and administration checks could curb demand for Chinese goods in major markets, with market participants in Canada and the United States watching closely as trade frictions shape export activity. The note behind the revision stresses how sensitive China’s growth is to external demand and policy actions in the world’s largest consumer market, and it has circulated widely among market participants in North America as a cautionary scenario for the year ahead. Source: UBS market briefing for North American investors.
The downgrade is seen as aligning with ongoing concerns about Chinese exports facing headwinds from the evolving US trade policy. Analysts suggest that stronger US-import measures could suppress shipments of Chinese products, constraining factory output and undermining growth momentum. Financial authorities warn that trade frictions create unusual pressures on Chinese exporters and may trigger structural shifts in the economy. In North American financial circles, the UBS projection is viewed among the more cautious calls issued by major banks, reinforcing a sense of elevated risk for exporters reliant on US demand. Source: North American market notes on Chinese export risk.
In mid-April, market assessments warned that new US import duties could push consumer prices higher while exerting downward pressure on oil markets. Those analyses note that some economies might seek to rebalance by expanding purchases of American energy products, including gas and crude oil. Yet, there is also caution that large economies, including China, could respond with countermeasures to shield their own export sectors. The analysis points out that the United States has not extended duties to all partners, a nuance driven by trade scales and strategic considerations. Source: North American market commentary.
These dynamics are set to influence the broader outlook for monetary policy and energy markets in North America, as investors weigh currency moves, energy prices, and consumer demand. The discussion also touches on ruble-denominated import activity and related trade patterns that add another layer of complexity for traders monitoring the global energy complex. Taken together, these trade-risk narratives create a cautious framework for 2025, with growth trajectories in China and other major economies depending on how policy responses align with evolving global demand.