The RBC edition reports that analysts expect the Central Bank to hold the key rate at 7.5 percent per year during the Board of Directors meeting scheduled for Friday, March 17. The forecast hinges on ongoing assessments of inflation trends, domestic economic activity, and external financial conditions, with policy makers weighing the need to support growth against the goal of maintaining price stability.
The central bank has kept the key rate unchanged through the last three meetings. In the recent past, the institution paused for four consecutive sessions in 2020 and 2021, and then held rates steady at 4.25 percent for eight months as it monitored the evolving macro picture and risks to the balance of payments, currency stability, and credit conditions. Market observers note that the decision in March could reflect new data on inflation trajectories, employment, and the health of credit channels, as well as the government’s fiscal stance and external demand for Russian exports.
A number of RBC interviewees expect a possible 0.25 percentage point increase in the key rate, citing evolving inflation pressures, the risk of second-round effects, and the need to anchor expectations for long-term price growth. The discussions around a small hike reflect a cautious approach by policymakers who aim to balance macro stability with the imperative to support lending and investment as the economy adjusts to shifting global conditions and domestic reforms.
In the bureau’s main forecast, the Central Bank projects that the net profits of Russian banks will land in a broad band around 1.2 to 1.5 trillion rubles for the current cycle. The publication notes that the regulator also recognizes the potential for the 2024 banking sector profit to reach between 1.2 and 1.7 trillion rubles, depending on the path of interest margins, loan volumes, and risk provisioning. These projections reflect continued bank profitability even as lending conditions and risk environments evolve in response to monetary policy signals, lending demand, and structural reforms across the financial system.
RBC, citing data from the Central Bank, reported that Russian banks issued about 389.6 million cards to citizens last year. The data show a rise of 18 percent over January to December, marking a record high in nearly a decade as the regulator expands data collection in this area and banks intensify efforts to digitize payments, broaden card acceptance, and push for more convenient access to financial services for the population. The growth in card issuance underscores ongoing trends toward financial inclusion, the modernization of the payments landscape, and the evolving dynamics of consumer credit in the Russian economy.