The central bank is anticipated to have room to trim policy rates in mid-2025. Analysts project that inflation will ease gradually toward a 4% target, a view shared with market observers who spoke to socialbites.ca. The commentary from Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, frames a cautious but hopeful path for monetary policy as the year progresses and the domestic economy absorbs external pressures.
Vasiliev’s scenario envisions a gradual decline in the key rate, rather than an abrupt tightening or a rapid reset. He stressed that by the end of 2025 the policy rate could settle around 14%, though the balance of risks remains tilted toward higher levels if inflation surprises to the upside. In this framework, the central bank would likely proceed with a cautious easing bias, while monitoring price dynamics and growth signals that could alter the timing and magnitude of any rate adjustments.
The analyst highlighted a key milestone at the upcoming meeting on October 25, where the central bank may lift the key policy rate to 20% for the third time in the year. This forecast rests on the prevailing conditions of inflation and the central bank’s broader inflation target trajectory, with the caveat that policy moves will depend on the evolving balance of risks and the resilience of the economy to higher borrowing costs.
In a risk-conscious scenario, Vasiliev noted that if inflation remains above 8% by year-end, the central bank could respond by raising rates further to the 21–22% range in the ensuing months. Borrowers should prepare for a period of sustained high borrowing costs, as liquidity in the economy could stay tight and money could remain comparatively expensive for an extended horizon. The assessment underscores the link between price pressures, monetary policy credibility, and the transmission of higher rates through consumer credit and corporate financing costs.
On September 13, the central bank adjusted its stance, lifting the policy rate from 18% to 19% in response to persistent inflation and resilient demand. The change raises questions about the impact on deposits, loans, and the ruble, with market participants assessing how funding costs and currency dynamics will evolve in the near term. The move reflects the central bank’s ongoing effort to balance price stability against growth considerations in a complex domestic and international environment.
Prior to these developments, observers had suggested that the ruble could strengthen following a rate adjustment, reflecting renewed expectations of higher yields and improved policy clarity. Market commentary at the time noted that the currency would likely respond to shifts in the rate path and the central bank’s communications, with potential spillovers to consumer finance, corporate borrowing, and exchange rate volatility. The broader narrative remains one of a cautious, data-driven approach to policy during a period of elevated inflation and varied demand signals across sectors.