The Central Bank of the Russian Federation maintains a forecast that inflation will converge back to a level near 4 percent in 2024, a projection outlined in the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Review prepared for public consultation. The document outlines how price dynamics have evolved since the earlier surge in 2022, followed by a clear path toward stabilization and a 2024 target that policymakers expect to meet. The emphasis is on gradual progress rather than abrupt shifts, reflecting ongoing assessment of domestic demand, supply conditions, and external price pressures that influence consumer prices across the economy.
After the jump in early 2022, inflation has shown a sustained deceleration as policy measures and easing supply disruptions helped temper price growth. The central bank’s analysis points to a trajectory where inflation gradually moves toward the 4 percent objective within the coming year, supported by credible policy communication and decision-making that align with both macroeconomic stabilization and prudent financial management. The review underscores the importance of maintaining price stability as a core objective, while also recognizing the need to monitor risks that could delay or alter the path to the target.
Historical inflation rates are cited to illustrate the bank’s long-run framework. The review notes that annual inflation posted around 4 percent in a recent year, with an average close to 4.2 percent over a five-year span. In the medium term, the bank anticipates inflation to sit within a wider corridor, acknowledging a forecast range that includes higher readings in 2023 before settling near the 4 percent mark in subsequent years. This stance reflects a balanced view that considers potential shocks, exchange rate movements, and domestic inflation expectations as part of a disciplined approach to monetary policy.
Elvira Nabiullina, the governor of the central bank, is highlighted in the review for her leadership and policy guidance. The document does not preclude the possibility of a policy rate adjustment at upcoming monetary policy meetings if inflation signs show a risk of overshooting the 4 percent target. The central bank’s present policy stance keeps the key rate at 7.5 percent per annum, with a track record of holding the rate steady through several successive decisions. This steadiness is presented as crucial to anchoring expectations and providing a transparent framework for business and household planning while inflation risks are actively monitored.
Former Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s remarks are incorporated to provide context on inflation trends observed from May 2022 to May 2023, a period characterized by a notable slowdown. The review references the measured inflation of 2.3 percent over that year as part of the ongoing evaluation of how price developments interact with fiscal policy, credit conditions, and broader economic recovery. Taken together, the report emphasizes a cautious but constructive stance toward inflation management, with attention to the evolving mix of domestic demand, import prices, and the international environment that shapes consumer prices and monetary stability for the foreseeable future.