The investment firm Cresco Finance relies on Dmitry Mikheev, its assets manager, to interpret shifts in the economy as they unfold. In recent assessments, he suggested that without a noticeable slowdown in price growth, the Central Bank is likely to press ahead with higher interest rates, a move that could further weaken the ruble in the near term. His comments originated from a briefing with the Public News Service, where he outlined the practical implications of continued monetary tightening for households and financial markets.
According to Mikheev, the central bank’s base scenario still assumes inflation will land within the 5 to 6.5 percent range by year end. Yet current readings have placed inflation at about 7 percent, a pace that is more rapid than the baseline forecast. He noted that such a gap between the forecast and the actual figure could prompt the central bank to act decisively, with policy tightening as its primary instrument to curb price pressures. In his view, raising the policy rate is the main tool available to slow inflation and stabilize expectations in a heated environment.
Looking ahead, Mikheev estimated that the combination of sustained inflation and the path of economic growth could lead the regulator to lift the rate considerably, potentially pushing it toward a 16 percent level in the coming cycle. He stressed that this is a projection conditioned on ongoing price dynamics and the trajectory of economic activity, and it may be adjusted as new data becomes available.
Beyond the base forecast, the analyst pointed to continued pressures on the ruble. He argued that the currency could face further depreciation unless domestic demand is dampened through higher borrowing costs, which would in turn temper consumption and support inflation stabilization efforts. The interaction between exchange rate movements and consumer prices remains a key area of focus for market participants as they gauge the central bank’s willingness to tighten and the efficiency of such measures in achieving its targets.
In conversations with market watchers, Anatoly Trifonov of BCS World of Investments offered a counterpoint to the prevailing narrative. He anticipated a 100 basis point increase in the policy rate at the board’s December meeting, driving the rate up to 16 percent on an annualized basis. This view underscores the likelihood that policymakers will respond to the latest inflation prints with a relatively aggressive hiking cycle aimed at restoring price stability and maintaining financial confidence during a period of external uncertainty.
Separately, Elvira Nabiullina, who previously led the Central Bank, has discussed the path ahead. The central bank’s outlook has suggested that while inflation may remain elevated in the near term, the aim remains to guide inflation back toward the 4 percent target over the medium term. If that trajectory holds, it would pave the way for a shift in monetary policy as inflation cools and the economy absorbs the impact of tighter financial conditions. Market participants monitor these signals closely, interpreting them as indications of how quickly the bank could begin to ease if inflation comes under firm control while growth stabilizes.