Analysts tracking the oil market expect Brent crude to fall below seventy dollars per barrel in the coming year, a view echoed by a senior energy analyst at a major news service. This outlook reflects shifting market dynamics as supply resilience grows among producers and demand patterns evolve in key regions.
The analyst notes that once January 2025 arrives, the already tough task of keeping prices high for oil-exporting nations becomes nearly insurmountable. Market forces, including supply trajectories and refining margins, are shaping a different balance, a shift many observers say will be visible as the year progresses.
The market appears to be on the cusp of a new downward wave that could push Brent below $70 a barrel, a scenario discussed by industry outlets and forecast by market participants across major regions.
Under the plan, the leading OPEC+ producers, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, are set to lift their maximum oil production by about 2.46 million barrels per day next year, while global demand is forecast to rise by roughly 1.54 million barrels per day. In practical terms, this means supply growth from these producers could outpace demand, placing downward pressure on prices.
If OPEC+ sticks to the stated plan, prices would likely fall. Conversely, if the group revises quotas and signals belt-tightening, investors may interpret that as an attempt to delay a formal quota increase, which would dampen prices further.
A mid-November report from a leading energy agency indicated that Russia’s supply of oil products abroad has fallen to a four-year low: October exports declined by about 230 thousand barrels per day to 2.48 million b/d, the lowest level since July 2020.
Previously, Western analyses outlined scenarios in which oil prices could be halved, underscoring the range of potential outcomes depending on how supply and demand balance evolves in the coming months.