The price of Brent crude for May delivery rose above 85 dollars per barrel for the first time since November 7, 2023, according to trading data on the ICE exchange. The move reflects renewed demand signals and ongoing tensions in the oil market, with market participants closely watching supply dynamics and global demand trends as the calendar moves into mid-year trading sessions.
At 17:11 Moscow time, Brent reached 85.11 dollars per barrel, up 1.29 percent from the previous session. Concurrently, April futures for U.S. WTI crude advanced 1.63 percent to 81.02 dollars per barrel, underscoring a broad lift across benchmark contracts as investors reassess risk premia tied to geopolitical developments and economic indicators.
Reuters reports that the latest forecast from the International Energy Agency points to tighter global oil markets, helping clamp down on existing slack and supporting higher prices in the near term. The agency’s outlook suggests stronger demand growth for 2024, though it also warns that a slower global economy could temper consumption levels, introducing a balancing act for price trajectories as the year progresses.
In its updated outlook, the IEA raised expectations for demand growth in 2024 while reducing projected supply growth, signaling a potential tightening in the balance of supply and demand. The agency now anticipates demand rebounding to more robust levels, yet cautions that slower economic momentum in major economies could cap the upside for oil usage. The IEA projects daily demand around 102.9 million barrels in 2024, a benchmark that supports a firmer pricing environment amid supply constraints and market jitters. A parallel dynamic is visible in the United States, where gasoline price increases contribute to a modest rise in consumer prices and a softer pace of consumer spending due to inflation concerns.
Despite shifting macro indicators, sentiment in the oil market about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts has remained relatively stable. Traders have priced in a gradual policy path, while observers monitor how evolving monetary policy, currency movements, and energy costs intersect with global growth prospects. On the supply side, Russia is signaling an expected uptick in crude exports even as ongoing disruptions tied to drone activity aimed at refining facilities pressurize the level of available supply from the region.
Earlier, market observers noted that President Putin’s remarks about preserving a portion of Russia’s share in the oil market had been seen as a signal of continued strategic priorities, reinforcing concerns about market share and geopolitical risk. Analysts emphasize that the dynamic between OPEC’s production decisions and non-OPEC supply remains critical as countries navigate fiscal pressures, sanctions, and domestic energy policies that influence both price levels and market stability.
OPEC has recently faced challenges in fully enforcing agreed cuts due to overseas participation issues and member country compliance, including hurdles in systematically aligning production quotas with output realities. In this context, market watchers keep a close eye on how policy alignment and geopolitical developments will shape supply discipline and price volatility in the near term.