Since January 1, 2024 Belarus adopted zero export tax rates for crude oil and petroleum products, a change reported by TASS citing the Council of Ministers of the Republic. The shift marks a notable pivot in Belarusian policy that aligns with evolving regional dynamics and trade arrangements within the Eurasian Economic Union. The decision means Belarus will no longer apply export duties on these commodities, influencing revenue streams and competitive positioning for local refineries.
Historically, Belarus has synchronized its export tax framework for oil and related products with Russia, a practice that began in 2010. Minsk has managed this alignment by accounting for duty-free oil imports from Moscow, helping to stabilize export economics amid fluctuating global markets. Since 2015, under EAEU agreements, export taxes on oil and oil products have remained within the Belarusian budget, creating a predictable fiscal flow even as external prices moved.
The change follows Russia’s broader tax maneuver launched in 2018, which gradually lowered the oil export tax from 30 percent in 2019 to zero by 2024. Simultaneously, Russia raised the mineral extraction tax, a dual shift that kept overall revenue considerations in balance despite shifting price pressures. While Russian refineries received compensation for the tax maneuver, Belarusian facilities did not, reducing the profitability of re-exporting oil products through Minsk and impacting regional trade patterns. The consequence was a tightened supply chain for Belarusian refiners and a push to reassess margins under the new regime.
In July 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko discussed compensating Minsk for the tax maneuver during a meeting in St. Petersburg. Belarusian Finance Minister Yuri Seliverstov noted in November 2023 that Minsk expected to collect a total of 1.3 billion rubles in compensation from Moscow by the end of 2023. Earlier estimates placed compensation for 2024 at about 2.1 billion rubles, underscoring the political and economic stakes tied to the tax shift.
The context for these developments includes shifts in global oil benchmarks. Brent crude, long a barometer of price movements, had reached previously high levels during the post-pandemic period, influencing strategic considerations for both Belarus and its trading partners. The evolving tax landscape shapes how Belarusian refineries operate, how trade routes are configured, and how the country negotiates fiscal stability amid a changing energy market. Observers note that the compensation arrangements and the zero export tax policy together create a framework in which Belarus seeks to maintain refinery viability while balancing national budgets within the broader region.
Experts emphasize that the 2024 tax stance interacts with market incentives, currency considerations, and regional cooperation. The adjustment places renewed emphasis on ensuring regulatory clarity for investors, refining margins, and the ability of Belarus to participate effectively in Eurasian trade corridors. As the policy settles, industry stakeholders will monitor oil price dynamics, demand shifts in neighboring markets, and the ongoing dialogue with Moscow over fiscal compensations. The overarching effect is a redefined export tax environment that could influence pricing strategies, supply flows, and the competitive position of Belarusian energy products within both regional and global contexts.