The Bank of Russia projects a steady expansion for the economy, forecasting annual GDP growth around 4.3 percent. This outlook appears in materials Regulation published on the Central Bank’s official site, which provides a comprehensive snapshot of policy stance and macroeconomic expectations for the year ahead. The document notes that inflationary momentum eased in December 2023 and January 2024, with the most intense price pressures having peaked in the autumn period. Bank materials Regulation, Central Bank of Russia.
Regarding price developments, the regulator observes a clear deceleration of inflation at the end of 2023 and into early 2024. The projections indicate that, under the current monetary policy framework, annual inflation should recede to approximately 4 to 4.5 percent in 2024 and hover near that level going forward. This guidance reflects the central bank’s assessment that monetary conditions will maintain credibility and support gradual price stabilization. Bank materials Regulation, Central Bank of Russia.
On growth dynamics, the Central Bank anticipates a softer pace in the first quarter, with the annual GDP growth rate slipping from about 4.8 percent in late 2023 to roughly 4.3 percent in the early 2024 period. The projection aligns with a cautious assessment of the domestic demand, investment activity, and the external environment as the year begins. Bank materials Regulation, Central Bank of Russia.
Economists from the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) weighed in on February 27, noting that even with further tightening of sanctions, the economy is expected to continue expanding. The research team highlighted that Russia’s economy proved more resilient to sanctions than initially anticipated, and the most recent restrictive measures did not create significant new obstacles. Their analysis also suggests that many of the recently imposed sanctions are already priced in, with new measures anticipated to have limited incremental impact. analysis, February 27.
According to former officials in the financial sector, the ongoing revenue trajectory for the Russian budget remains a central focus. The commentary underscores that fiscal health hinges on reliable revenue streams, which in turn influence policy flexibility and the ability to fund public programs amid sanctions and external pressures. and policy commentary, February 27.