The Bank of Russia has updated the State Duma with a refreshed draft that outlines the central bank’s main directions for monetary policy through 2024 to 2026. The document reflects the latest interest rate decisions and the regulator’s new macroeconomic projections, and it is accessible on the central bank’s site. The update shows how policy will engage with the evolving economy over the coming years and what the bank expects for inflation, growth, and financial stability in a changing global environment.
The central bank clarifies that monetary policy will continue to play a decisive role in steering inflation toward the 4 percent target. It is anticipated that inflation will return to this level in 2024 and then remain near it for the foreseeable future. The message is straightforward: achieving and maintaining price stability will require a restrictive posture for an extended period, even as growth dynamics shift and external conditions change.
Forecasts for the policy rate span several years. The document points to an average rate around 9.6 to 9.7 percent for 2023, climbing to about 11.5 to 12.5 percent for 2024, and then easing to roughly 7 to 8 percent in 2025. In 2026, the rate is projected to be in the 5.5 to 6.5 percent corridor, aligning with the bank’s long-run neutral rate outlook. These projections reflect careful calibration of monetary settings to balance inflation pressures with the need to support sustainable economic activity.
Alongside the baseline scenario, the central bank presents alternative paths to capture a range of potential developments. The Increasing Fragmentation scenario assumes heightened geopolitical tensions and tighter sanctions on Russia, which would affect trade, investment sentiment, and financial conditions. The Risk scenario considers persistent global inflation, a more aggressive tightening cycle by major central banks, and the possibility of renewed global financial stress. Both paths underscore the sensitivity of Russia’s economy to external shocks and the importance of adaptable policy tools.
One point noted is that the federal budget framework for 2024–2026 is being prepared in parallel with these monetary policy considerations. The draft budget was planned for submission to the State Duma on September 29, signaling a synchronized approach to fiscal and monetary plans. The interaction between fiscal policy and the central bank’s stance remains a central feature of the overall macroeconomic framework, aimed at delivering stable growth alongside controlled inflation.
Earlier statements from senior officials have underscored the priorities for fiscal sustainability and policy consistency. The ongoing dialogue between the Bank of Russia and government ministries reflects a shared emphasis on prudence, resilience to external shocks, and clear communication with markets and the public. As conditions evolve, the central bank intends to adjust its instruments and guidance to preserve financial stability, guard against inflation surprises, and support a steady, transparent policy path for households, businesses, and investors alike.
Overall, the document presents a cautious but forward-looking view. It acknowledges the risks from external developments while outlining a clear route toward inflation containment and macroeconomic stability. By projecting rate paths that gradually ease as price pressures ease, and by detailing scenarios that test policy resilience, the Bank of Russia aims to provide a credible framework for economic actors in Canada, the United States, and beyond to plan ahead with greater confidence.