The dollar on April 29 is 81.5 rubles, euro – 92.7 rubles, Yuan – 11.2 rubles 14:00 Moscow time. According to economists, the dynamics of the Russian currency in the coming months will be largely determined by negotiations between the development of the Russian Federation -SSC and geopolitical situation. Experts make sure that Ruble’s current strengthening may last in the summer, while the negotiations have been made progress, or so far, Russian officials are not involved in restricting the strengthening of the national currency.
“Any geopolitical improvement will lead to strengthening rubles and growth of Russian actions and ties. Softened sanctions and foreign capital will look for waiting for the flow of foreign capital – speculators usually income, then direct investments in the Russian economy can return to direct investments in these expectations.
According to him, in this scenario, the dollar will cost in the coming months 70-80 rublesand with an inverse increase in negotiations and deterioration in the geopolitical situation, the course of the American currency 90-100 rubles.
Economic candidate, BCS World Investment Stock Exchange Expert Mikhail Zelzer, in April, reached the summit of Ruble’s strengthening cycle and foreign currencies are already disappeared ”.
“90 rubles are much higher than the dollar and Yuan for 12 rubles until the summer month, probably too early. Nevertheless, geopolitical consultations continue and the risk-leaving the ruble decreased and a factor in the support of national vitality in an interview with this newspaper.”
In accordance with the Russian Federation Government, Prof. Dr. Peter Shcherbachenko, Associate Professor of Finance, is sure that the dollar will be the dollar until June 76-84 rublesEuro – 88-96 rublesyuan – 10.8–11.8 rubles. Investment Strategist “Garden Capital” Alexander Bakhtin admitted that the dollar would approach in the summer months 90 rublesEuro – to 100 rublesand yuan – 12.2 rubles.
What will be the minimum of the dollar
In case of an important foreign investment flow to Russia, economists did not exclude 60-70 rubles this summer. According to experts, Russian officials with a dollar with a 70 rubles will bring measures to restrict the strengthening of the national currency.
“If there is an important foreign capital flow in the Russian market, the dollar may fall 60-70 rubles at the moment. In 2022, the dollar cost of 50-60 rubles for a long time until the authorities take measures to lose weight. First, importers and citizens who can buy foreign goods are cheaper than a strong ruble. In addition, with a strong ruble, you can expect an earlier start to slow down inflation faster and reduce the key ratio. At the same time, very strong ruble exchange rate is disadvantageous for budget and exporters. Therefore, authorities can use different mechanisms to restrict the strengthening of the ruble. ”
According to Him, Such Measures Can Be Verbal Interventions About The Ruble Strengthening, Reduction The Framework Operations With Transition to Replenishing the Currency to Reserves, Obligatory Sale of Foreign Exchange Earnings, The Active Relause of Non -Restion From Type “C” Accounts, Weakenings Restrictions on the Withdrawal of Capital, Reducing
Vasiliev stressed that these measures are effective and that they can distribute the current trend to strengthen the ruble.
RUBLE EFFECTS ATTACK exchange rate
According to economists, now the trade balance under sanction conditions continues to be one of the main macroeconomic factors to support the ruble. In favor of the ruble Yuan is played from reserves under budget operations (now – 10.5 billion rubles a day) and high ruble interest rates. Against Ruble A decrease in oil prices are playing an increase in the demand for currency.
Ruble support in the coming months, as in April, will decrease the prices of another raw material due to oil price and trade wars. [президента США Дональда] Trump and OPEC+ decisions+ starts to increase oil production. The US protectionist policy can lead to a significant slowdown in the global economy and a decrease in global raw material consumption, which is negative for Russian exports and rubles. Since April, the Brent oil price has been constantly moved to $ 60-70 per barrel, and a few years later it has been kept in the range of $ 70-80 per barrel (mainly in OPEC+efforts).
According to the estimation, the average price of Brent Barrel in the second quarter will be $ 65 and $ 76 in the third quarter and $ 81 last year.
“In June, a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank is likely to be excluded from 50 basic points (up to 20.5%) and the softening of monetary policy is fundamentally negative for national vascular. Imports can be implemented, but also export income [могут] Staying or reducing at the same level, which will depend on world prices for raw materials. Considering the geopolitical dissolution scenario and the removal of sanctions, we may assume an increase in export volumes, but in this case, import flows may significantly grow from the balance of the proposal and demand in the foreign exchange market. In addition, let’s not forget that there is a holiday season where physical demand for foreign currency in the summer is an increasing holiday season. Bak Bakhtin.
According to him, existing money courses are comfortable for both summer trips and for investment purposes.
OPERA Vice President of Russia Dmitry Pishchelnikov called this to remember. Any planning in the current geopolitical state is a riskBecause foreign currencies are influenced by the foreign currency exchange rate, the US, China, India and Pakistan, including foreign economic and political factors.
Ruble with stable oil prices will remain in the range of 90-100 rubles per dollar before autumn. With the deterioration of the conjungeon, it is possible to lose weight with 110-150 rubles in the autumn. The ruble in the budget, 80-90 rubles per dolla Without the ruble will remain sensitive to changes in raw material markets. ”
Andrei Loboda, the senior manager of the communication field, told Gazeda.ru that the geopolitical situation could affect the money market by the end of the year.
What are you thinking?
Source: Gazeta
Ben Stock is a business analyst and writer for “Social Bites”. He offers insightful articles on the latest business news and developments, providing readers with a comprehensive understanding of the business world.