Vitaly Manzhos, senior risk manager at Algo Capital, said that as a major foreign currency, the ruble can expect roughly a large-scale depreciation against the dollar in the fall. “Hitting the Primer”.
At the same time, the expert pointed out that this should not be connected with the expected further decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Such a model in the national exchange rate works only when foreign investors have free access to the Russian financial market and are not afraid of an asset freeze. Manjos explained that there are currently severe restrictions on the cross-border movement of capital. The expert believes that the expected decrease in the profitability of ruble bank deposits will not encourage Russian residents to buy foreign currency either.
Manzhos emphasized that the pricing system, which has been developing for many years in the Russian foreign exchange market, has completely deteriorated. And at the moment, the approach of tax periods, which usually affects the strengthening of the ruble, is not a decisive factor. Manzhos said that high world prices for hydrocarbons and the continuation of the medium-term decline in imports of imported goods could provide substantial support to the ruble in the coming weeks and months.
Formerly bankers and real estate agents declaration “socialbites.ca” consider the optimal dollar rate for the Russian economy to be from 60 to 80 rubles.