Since the beginning of 2024, the ruble has weakened by 1 percent against the dollar and 2 percent against the euro. At the same time, the Russian currency has strengthened by 6 percent against the yuan. Since February 1, the ruble has weakened much more strongly against the currencies – by 21 percent against the dollar and 17 percent against the euro, but by 1 percent against the yuan. According to Finam, the dollar and euro are currently worth slightly more than 91 rubles and 102 rubles, respectively, on the interbank market. The yuan exchange rate on the exchange is 11.67 rubles as of 14:39 Moscow time on August 26.
Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca admitted that the dollar exchange rate will not change in the fall 95 ruble in the absence of force majeure, euro – 104 rubleyuan – 13.2 rubles.
According to the forecast of Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst of Sovcombank, in the autumn the dollar and euro exchange rates on the interbank market will be 87-94 rubles and 97-104 rubles, respectively, and the yuan on the exchange will be 11.3-12 rubles. Andrei Loboda, economist and communications director of BitRiver, is sure that the dollar will cost 85-95 rubles, the euro will cost 94-104 rubles, and the yuan will cost 11.7-13.2 rubles. Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Bank ZENIT, expects the dollar to remain in the range of 87-91 rubles and the yuan to remain in the range of 11.8-12.2 rubles in the autumn. Evstifeev noted that the currencies will move to the maximum values of these borders.
What will support the ruble?
Loboda said that the main event in the global economy next autumn will be the reduction of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve System. According to the expert, this will affect the weakening of the dollar against world currencies, including the ruble.
Vasiliev stressed that the ruble was supported mainly by high oil prices and a trade surplus: Russia’s exports exceeded its imports by $30 billion this quarter. “In the fall, Brent oil prices will remain in the range of $77-85 per barrel,” the analyst added.
According to him, the Western sanctions in June created problems in payments with friendly countries, which affected Russia’s imports more than its exports. This, the analyst explained, temporarily reduced the demand for currency and supported the ruble.
They play in favor of the ruble:
*Compulsory sale of foreign exchange earnings for the largest exporters;
*daily sale of yuan from reserves in the amount of 7.3 billion rubles as part of budget operations;
*high ruble interest rates on deposits.
According to Vasilyev’s forecast, the Central Bank of Russia will hold upcoming meetings (September 13 or October 25) will raise interest rates by 200 basis points again 20%It will remain at this level for 6 months. The analyst explained that this decision will support the Russian currency in the medium term: it will lead to a comparable increase in deposit rates, which will increase the attractiveness of savings in rubles. The demand for the national currency will increase, which will strengthen the exchange rate.
Due to the increase in loan interest rates, consumer demand and foreign exchange demand will decrease. This will also push exchange rates down.
What will weaken the ruble?
Negative factors for the ruble include:
*geopolitical and sanctions risks;
*capital outflow;
*Request for funds to buy shares of Russian companies from foreign owners;
*Increase in budget expenditures, especially in import purchases.
“Ruble fluctuations may worsen due to the development of the geopolitical situation and the situation in payments with friendly countries,” Vasiliev is sure.
The US presidential election in November and political uncertainty could also affect exchange rates, according to Loboda.
“The ruble exhibits unusual behavior whenever “black swans” occur. That is, when impossible or very difficult to predict events occur. “Perhaps the period with the highest probability of occurrence of ‘black swans’ in the forex market will occur in November-early December and may be associated with the presidential elections in the US,” the economist said.
According to him, even if there are “black swans” the dollar will not rise any further 95 rubleBut the expert did not ignore the dollar 100 ruble has a very negative foreign background.
Should I buy foreign currency?
According to Vasiliev’s forecast, the ruble will remain stable until the end of 2024. Therefore, the analyst recommended making a decision to buy foreign currency each person depending on their financial goals. Therefore, cash currency can be convenient when traveling abroad for tourism or business purposes.
The best time to buy foreign currency now largely depends on the available purchasing methods, said BCS Forex analyst Anatoly Trifonov. He advised to carefully monitor the exchange rate in various banks to find profitable offers.
Evstifeev admitted that the ruble will lose value in the next two to three years. According to him, the most attractive rate for buying dollars is 85-87 rubles, while the yuan is 11.7-11.8 rubles.
Loboda did not recommend buying foreign currency:
“Interest rates on foreign currency deposits are low (an average of up to 5%. – socialbites.ca). You can earn much more on ruble deposits (18-22%. – socialbites.ca). If you want your savings to be completely protected from inflation, it would be better to buy gold,” he emphasized.
To save foreign exchange, Vasiliev recommended considering the substitution bonds of large Russian companies, which do not pose any risk of infrastructure and sanctions, since all payments are made in rubles at the Central Bank exchange rate. According to the analyst, these are bonds of PIK and Borets (annual yield in dollars 12-13%), Gazprom Neft, Sovcomflot and RUSAL (annual yield in yuan 8-10%).
“The general recommendation for today: in difficult conditions, there is no need to make sudden large-scale transitions to various assets,” Alla Dvoretskaya, head of the Department of Economics and Finance of the Federal Department of Economic Sciences and Social Sciences, told the Presidential Academy.
What are you thinking?
Source: Gazeta
Ben Stock is a business analyst and writer for “Social Bites”. He offers insightful articles on the latest business news and developments, providing readers with a comprehensive understanding of the business world.