After the Russian presidential elections, the ruble exchange rate may drop temporarily and the dollar may rise to 95-98 rubles. This forecast was given to socialbites.ca by candidate of economic sciences, associate professor at the department of global financial markets and fintech of the Russian University of Economics. GV Plekhanova Tatyana Belyanchikova.
“There may be pressure on the ruble exchange rate (after the elections – socialbites.ca), but there is a high probability of a correction by the end of the month. “Statistics show that a certain depreciation of the national currency is always present after the elections, but this is primarily associated with the expectations of market participants and the attempt to play it safe,” noted the economist.
Belyanchikova concluded that therefore, of course, there is a possibility of some weakening of the ruble, but in the absence of external shocks such a weakening should not be critical.
“Due to sanctions, we live in a “tight” foreign exchange market where the amount of currency sold and purchased is small. “The volume of foreign trade transactions with a number of countries has decreased to some extent, and a number of bans on traditional foreign investors have led to an even more significant restriction on the activities of these market participants,” Belyanchikova said.
The economist added that the Central Bank’s high interest rate (currently 16%) prevents currency speculators from betting for higher exchange rates. Belyanchikova expects that the requirement for the compulsory sale of foreign currency earnings in Russia will be extended until the end of the year, which will support the ruble exchange rate.
According to the Moscow Stock Exchange, the cost of the dollar at 13:19 Moscow time on March 12 is 90.9 rubles. Compared with Monday’s closing closing level, the price of the American currency increased by 30 kopecks. Presidential elections in Russia will be held on March 15-17.
Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Russia Sergei Dubinin named “socialbites.ca” base rate level on March 22.