Economists at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) believe that the Russian economy will continue to grow despite further tightening of sanctions. This result is as follows: article “High risks and weak economic growth rates: macro forecast for Russia in the medium term” in the scientific journal “Economic Problems”.
The authors of the study, teachers from the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, examined two scenarios for economic development from 2024 to 2026. In both cases, sanctions pressure is increasing, the only difference is the speed at which new restrictions are introduced.
According to the conservative scenario, GDP growth is expected to slow sharply to 0.3% in 2024, but in subsequent years this figure will rise to 1.5-1.4%. Inflation will rise to 8 percent, but will fall to 4 percent in 2026.
In the base scenario, the economy will grow by 1.5-2.2 percent in 2024-2026. Inflation will return to the 4 percent target in 2025. The real income of the population will increase by approximately 2% each year.
According to RANEPA scientists, the Russian economy turned out to be more resistant to sanctions than expected. Moreover, the latest restrictive measures have not created additional difficulties and new sanctions are largely foreseen. This allows Russian authorities to minimize negative consequences.
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Source: Gazeta
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