real reasons
First of all, I arrived on time project Action plan for Russia’s low-carbon development strategy prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development. This project was a significant milestone in achieving the goal of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060. delivered To the Russian government in October 2021.
Second, the conflict over climate between wealthy Western countries and the developing world reached its peak in December 2023 in Dubai, where the 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was held. The event made clear that no positive progress has been made towards achieving the 2015 Paris Agreement targets of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and limiting the increase in global temperatures. Poorer countries need money to adapt, while Europe demands ‘hard decarbonisation’ from others to try While they are revitalizing their stagnating economies, major emerging economies are still increasing Emissions are waiting to peak. Russia ruins It adheres to the goals of the Paris Agreement and achieves all its national goals.
Third, the Ministry of Economic Development has already made a number of public statements this year confirming the ministry’s intention to introduce a carbon fee; denied this scenario. Well, Deputy Minister Ilya Torosov named He added that this measure was necessary, but that this issue “is on the agenda to be discussed with the business world and government officials.”
A day later we discussed carbon regulation – within the framework of the Russian Business Week of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, a Climate Forum was held, bringing together representatives of the business community, relevant ministries and departments, as well as industry experts. However, the business community took the news that fiscal measures were included in the draft action plan with caution, and Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, commented on the potential introduction of a carbon payment mechanism as early as 2028. , noted that this issue needs to be discussed carefully: “It is not entirely clear why the question was asked in this way. “We need to evaluate whether this history has objective basis.” In any case, the fate of the controversial point in the plan has not yet been determined.
Central Bank of Russia at the beginning of February published Report on the preliminary results of the stress test on the impact of transition climate risks on the Russian economy. There are no easy options to look forward to. In the first scenario, one-third of the largest companies in the sample over the 2030-2040 horizon if there is no active adaptation to the energy transition. It indicates a significant deterioration in financial situation. In the second, if a more ambitious domestic climate policy is implemented, the same companies will begin to experience difficulties earlier and their financial performance will be worse than in the first scenario.
Even if representatives of the “brown” sectors of the economy (including oil and gas, metallurgical, mining and transport companies, fertilizer and chemical producers) are trying to adapt their business models to the context of energy transition, inner carbon The regulation will hit them harder than in the first scenario because, if implemented, they will have to pay not only the amount of emissions intended for export, but also the entire volume of emissions resulting from the production activities of businesses.
hopes
They proposed a carbon fee in Europe to solve their problems: reducing energy dependence, primarily on Russia, and creating artificial advantages for their industries once the imposition of European technologies began to stall. This benefit was a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from the production of products sourced from other countries for sale in Europe, called the TUR, or European cross-border carbon regulation.
The logic is that if these countries have a carbon tax comparable to Europe, around $100 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, then perhaps producers will be exempt from payments under the European TUR. Given its sanctions policy, it is difficult to imagine that the European Union will approach Russia neutrally and exempt it from payments. If we add the collapse of exports to the countries of the European Union, the collection of remaining volumes on the scale of the Russian economy is not significant. And Russian businesses will also pay twice, in Russia and in Europe.
The IMF has calculated that fiscal revenues from carbon regulation in Russia could amount to more than 4% of GDP in 2030, which could clearly be against national interests. The domestic price of carbon will hit Russian producers and consumers hard; It will trigger inflation, reduce citizens’ well-being and make Russian products more expensive than their imported counterparts.
Climate payments are currently in the initial discussion phase in several countries, including Russia’s main trading partners. It’s hard to predict whether they will promote their own TOUR or tackle the European tour. But here India and South Africa decided Protest against the European carbon tax at the WTO ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi next week.
So far, only the European Union has set a high carbon price. The rest is either absent or fluctuating at a level close to zero. Will our products, which have become more expensive due to the carbon tax, be purchased from China? In India? In Africa? Presumably all these countries will prefer to buy from those who sell cheaper, even though they have a higher carbon footprint. According to various experts, real developments in the case of carbon payments can only be expected in the 2030s. This means that Russia has ample time to analyze the prospects in detail and fully implement the climate regulation model that is beneficial for the country’s development.