In the first quarter of 2024, the ruble exchange rate against the dollar, euro and yuan is expected to continue to fluctuate in wide ranges such as 88-95, 97-105 and 12.25-13.25, respectively. Independent financial analyst Konstantin Tserazov talked about this in a conversation with socialbites.ca.
“Exchange rates are likely to be quite volatile in the coming months and will not be able to move beyond existing corridors,” the expert said.
However, Tserazov believes that if the decision on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings of Russian exporters is not extended in April, a new wave of weakening of the Russian currency may begin in the second quarter.
In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the measures envisaged by this decree were temporary. In this scenario, the dollar/ruble exchange rate could rise to 115 in the second or third quarter of 2024, and the euro and yuan could show greater percentage growth.
“Without the mandatory sale of foreign currency by exporters, the ruble could weaken significantly,” predicts Tserazov.
In the last two years, there have been two periods of rapid and large-scale strengthening of the Russian currency: the first began in March 2022, and the second began in October 2023. In both cases, Russian authorities took measures to support the ruble.
In the absence of free movement of capital, the ruble exchange rate began to be determined mainly by the dynamics of the trade balance of the Russian Federation. To date, imports have fully recovered and exports have returned to normal levels.
Therefore, if the decree is canceled and imports remain stable, preconditions will arise for the weakening of the ruble. High budget expenditures and the country’s heavy dependence on imports will continue to create additional pressure.
Tserazov believes that to prevent a new wave of weakening of the ruble, either additional measures on the forced sale of foreign currency or a serious restriction on imports will be required.
previously analyst guess Next week’s dollar rate.
Belousov before appreciated the current ruble exchange rate is optimal.