Saksa Bank of Denmark introduced annual “shock predictions” – 10 predictions based on unexpected events that could significantly impact global markets.
In the material, the predictions for 2024 were themselves called “End of the Road”. As Saxo Bank Investment Director Steen Jacobsen explains, it will become clear in 2024 that the smooth path on which the world has been moving since the 2008 crisis will end and a dangerous, uncertain future is approaching. Here, new technologies solve old problems but also create new dilemmas.
Saxo Bank believes that the world may face two global crises in 2024.
The first will be about deepfakes. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) will evolve from a way to increase efficiency to a threat to national security.
According to estimates, a high-ranking official in a developed country is being attacked using deepfake. This will lead to countries developing new AI regulations, and the excitement around them will fade.
After the bans, venture investors will leave the industry. Public distrust of news produced by artificial intelligence will increase. Predictions are that governments will then pass laws to ensure that only a small group of organizations can disseminate news.
The second crisis will result from the obesity epidemic due to glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1)-based drugs. Weight loss pills are currently seen as the solution to the global obesity epidemic, but by 2024 they may well be the cause. Taking such medications that make a person feel full may cause people to stop exercising and start eating more fast food. Analysts say the supply of pills will not be able to keep up with demand and the world will face an increase in obesity and related health problems.
According to the bank’s predictions, the United States may see the “end of capitalism” in 2024. In the environment of presidential elections, the country’s government will have to increase spending to prevent problems in the economy and social unrest.
Inflation pressure will continue and foreign investors will continue to attract capital. The US government will then exempt income from government bonds from taxes. In this case, money will pass from private companies to the state and capitalism will collapse.
The bank also assumes that Robert Kennedy Jr., the first independent candidate in the country’s history, will win the US presidential election.
The oil market may also face shocks in 2024. Saxo Bank analysts predict that the barrel price of Brent will rise to $150. Saudi Arabia will use its oil revenues to buy the Champions League rights from UEFA and turn it into a world tournament. Thus, the country will take another step towards getting rid of oil addiction and restructuring the economy. This is what Saudi Arabia wants to achieve by 2030, according to the kingdom’s Vision 2030 development plan.
The EU will impose a luxury tax to cover the rising costs of green energy, aid to Ukraine and fight inflation. Analysts say such a measure would create a shock to the European luxury industry and reduce demand for such goods in general. Share prices of major companies such as Porsche and Ferrari will fall. And LVMH securities (develops brands Christian Dior, Louis Vuitton, Givenchy, Guerlain, Moët & Chandon, Hennessy, Chaumet) can lose up to 40% of its cost.
What was predicted in 2023
Saxo Bank publishes its forecasts every year. The organization’s analysts predicted that there will be a sharp increase in gold prices in 2023 and meat production will be banned in at least one country. It was also stated in the prediction that French President Emmanuel Macron would resign unexpectedly.
They also predicted that the world economy would shift into a “war economy” mode as “every major power in the world seeks to strengthen its own national security,” according to Saxo Bank Investment Director Steen Jacobsen.
Another prediction for 2023 was that a referendum would be held in England to cancel Brexit. This and other predictions of Saxo Bank did not come true. Economists always emphasize that they are not striving for accuracy, but simply trying to imagine what the world will be like in the future.