The Bank of Russia may raise the key interest rate once again, maintaining its tight position, taking into account aggregate inflation data and rising inflation expectations. This opinion was expressed by Alexander Fetisov, head of the analytical department of Rosselkhozbank (RSHB), in a conversation with socialbites.ca.
According to him, the population’s inflation expectations over the annual horizon have significantly decreased. grew upIt reached 12.2% in November. Annual inflation also increased by 1.2% compared to October. Fetisov believes that with the current rate of price growth, there is a risk of exceeding the upper limit of the Bank of Russia’s forecast range of 7.5%.
According to the analysis of the Bank of Russia, rapid growth in corporate loans continues despite previous increases in the key interest rate. The regulator points to the accumulated margin of safety that will support the stability of the real and financial sectors when monetary policy is tightened.
According to Fetisov, the base scenario envisages the Bank of Russia increasing the key interest rate at its December meeting by 100 basis points to 16%.
“However, a more radical increase cannot be ruled out in order to stop possible inflation trends at the beginning of 2024 and keep the 2024 forecast inflation range at 4-4.5%,” the expert said.
Before that, the expert set the deadline Refunds Inflation reaching the target level.
Formerly the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye raised Up to 40 percent annual rate.