Next week the dollar rate will be 97-102 rubles. This forecast was given to socialbites.ca by Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at BCS World of Investments.
“The ruble’s Achilles heel remains the weak point of current account indicators. “While imports have recovered to 2021 levels, inflows of foreign exchange earnings from exports have decreased due to the impact of sanctions, Russia’s voluntary reduction of oil production, and difficulties in repatriating earnings in non-convertible currencies,” he said.
According to Bakhtin, the current weakening of the ruble is also due to the temporary ban on fuel exports (oil products account for a third of the income of Russia’s oil exporters) and the strength of the dollar. The DXY dollar index, the ratio of the U.S. dollar to a basket of six currencies of U.S. trading partners, is trading near annual highs of 106 points. This puts pressure on commodity prices and emerging currencies, the expert said.
“If the technical resistance level of 101.8 rubles per dollar becomes unbearable in the short term, breakouts towards 105-106 rubles are not excluded. In such a scenario, the financial authorities are likely to intervene immediately. We maintain our forecast that the ruble will strengthen moderately in the medium term. By the end of October, with the support of the tax period, the Russian currency may approach the dollar to 95-96 rubles,” Bakhtin said.
At the close of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Friday, the dollar rate was 100.405 rubles and the euro was 105.7725 rubles. Sergey Suverov, investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company statedIt was stated that the current weakening of the ruble is “insufficient”.
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