The strengthening of the US currency is now based on market expectations that the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy in the face of strong economic data in the US. But that could change as the US economy is under high pressure, he says: Forbes.
According to Gazprombank President Yegor Susin, markets are overestimating the Fed’s willingness to maintain high rates due to positive economic statistics in the United States. “This data set suggests the Fed will likely keep interest rates higher and for longer than expected,” Susin said.
At the same time, data in the euro area points to a slowdown in growth, so the ECB may pause interest rate hikes despite high inflation. The economies of Germany and the Netherlands have already entered recession. Experts believe that the difference in the approaches of the Fed and ECB will continue to support the dollar.
However, Susin believes that the dollar’s rise will not last forever if interest rates remain high. “Growth of the US economy is limited under the current model,” he says. When the first negative news appears, it will immediately affect the dollar index. This will mark the end of growth in the American currency.
Experts say that the effect of the strengthening of the dollar on the ruble is limited. For the Russian currency, the situation in the domestic market and the oil price are more important. According to analyst Alexander Potavin, the link between the dollar and oil has weakened due to the fact that payments for raw materials are made in national currencies. Therefore, the correlation between oil and the dollar has disappeared. In the short term, the ruble may strengthen more against the euro and yuan, but the opposite may happen if negative statistical data for the USA are announced.
Recently Digital Broker analyst Daniil Bolotskikh accepted The price of the dollar rises to 100 rubles.
Previous analysts got worse Forecast of the ruble exchange rate for the next three years.