China’s government debt will exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2027. This is also stated in the report of the European rating agency. Scope Ratings.
It is stated that public debt was only 34 percent of GDP in 2010, and this rate increased to 60 percent in 2019. It is stated that the figures are currently 77% as part of the financial incentives during the coronavirus epidemic. Experts think it makes sense for public debt to hit a record 100% within a few years, given the slowdown in the pace of reforms.
The agency’s experts predict this, taking into account the high risk of Chinese authorities choosing the wrong fiscal policy in the context of demographic problems and the tense situation in the real estate sector.
August 28, Moody’s Investors Service rating agency in a new macroeconomic review on China he drew It highlights a number of structural challenges facing the Chinese economy. The report stated that demographic aging and slowing labor growth will hinder the increase in labor productivity. In addition, high levels of public debt no longer allow for the same growth rates as traditional sectors.
According to Russian experts, the slowdown in the Chinese economy is not so negative to influence Russia in its exports due to the increasing interdependence of the two countries. At the same time, China is likely to control the transfer of promising technologies in order to get the maximum benefit for its own development.
Former Chinese economists prohibited talk about problems.