The dollar rate for the first time since March 23 last year Mosbirzhe It exceeded 101 rubles. As of 14.20 Moscow time, the US currency is trading at 101.4 rubles. per dollar and euro is about 111 rubles.
In July, Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst of Sovcombank, in a conversation with socialbites.ca judicial such indicators are the “bottom” of the ruble. He warned that prices of cars, home appliances and electronics, overseas travel vouchers, medicines and loans would rise in the coming months due to the weakening of the ruble.
“If the dollar rate is fixed above 90 rubles. and move to 100 rubles. Inflation will approach double digits and the key rate will need to be raised to 9-10 percent or higher,” Vasiliev said.
The expert noted that on the backdrop of the general increase in prices and increasing consumer demand, other companies that are not directly related to imports may also increase their sales prices.
What to do with rubles at such a dollar rate?
Financial analyst, candidate of economic sciences Mikhail Belyaev explained to socialbites.ca that the actions of Russians in the current dollar rate should depend on whether they want to save their money, increase it, and also on such amounts.
“… The person will buy at the rate at which the bank sells, that is, at a higher selling rate. And when he needs to buy rubles to buy some goods or services, he will have to sell that money back to the bank. This will already be at the bank’s purchase rate, with 10% between them.
To reach at least zero, we must wait for the ruble to depreciate by ten percent, ”the expert said.
He added that the ruble has fallen against all currencies, so it is not so important what currency Russians keep their savings in.
“We can only talk about three, namely the dollar, the euro or the yuan. Everything else is worse, they are not seen as investment objects,” he said.
Will the Russians stop traveling?
ATOR Vice-President Artur Muradyan told socialbites.ca that Russian citizens did not experience “shock pressure” due to the appreciation of the currency, but that it did affect travel prices.
“The initial price tag for foreign travel in the current realities will start between 180-200 thousand rubles, and this, of course, hits the most budget consumer, the most economically unprotected,” said Muradyan.
He added that if, as in 2022, the dollar is 115-120 rubles, and the euro – 140-150 rubles, then travel will turn into a luxury.
“Based on the sales structure, operators are seeing the budget segment wash out and remain average and above average. “This is a painful and delicate situation, and some operators, particularly those focused on the audience segment, will face challenges.”
The ATOR vice president acknowledged that with this development of events, destinations where a large tourist flow is expected may suffer: Egypt, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Colombo, ie not the premium segment.
“There is a smile on the faces and there is no stress”
Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma financial market committee, said: ura.ruthat “the majority of the population cares” about the ruble-dollar ratio and that the situation is under state control.
“Republic [Чувашия] They are living a full life, smiling faces and there is no stress that the dollar rate is approaching 100 rubles,” he said.
Aksakov believes that Russia is in “a positive trend in its development”.
That is, not in terms of growth rates, they are still not enough because we have relied on oil, gas and energy carriers in the development of the economy. And now mechanical engineering, tool making, electrical engineering are flourishing,” explained the official.
Why is the ruble falling?
Belyaev explained that the depreciation of the ruble meant “pretty serious problems” in the economy.
According to him, the decline of the ruble is determined by the market economy, which, despite some successes, is in a stagnant position.
The economist believes that “unless significant adjustments are made in the work of our economy in the near future, the ruble will continue to fall steadily and consistently against the dollar.”
He added that at the moment the monetary policy of the Central Bank is aimed at fighting inflation, but at the same time the movement and functioning of the Russian economy is hindered.
Deputy of the President of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin in a column TASS The main reason for the current exchange rate of the dollar and the euro is called soft monetary policy.
“The Central Bank has all the necessary tools to normalize the situation in the near future and ensure that lending rates are lowered to sustainable levels,” the deputy presidency said.
What’s next?
Belyaev believes that the ruble exchange rate will not exceed 110-120 rubles, since the Russian Federation has a strong economy:
“Some separate areas of correction are not overlooked, but if basically nothing changes, then we are guaranteed a depreciation of the ruble against the dollar.”
red blood cell Referring to the Central Bank, he stated that there is no threat to Russia’s financial stability in the current dollar rate. At the same time, it is possible to raise the key rate to stabilize inflation at the upcoming meetings. In addition, there will be further tightening in monetary policy in Russia.
Source: Gazeta
Ben Stock is a business analyst and writer for “Social Bites”. He offers insightful articles on the latest business news and developments, providing readers with a comprehensive understanding of the business world.