It is very difficult to predict all this – the growth of the dollar against the ruble has already gone beyond economic factors, beyond economic limits. Not so calm information is determined by the background. Therefore, our investors and ruble holders are trying to attract traditional defense assets, the foreign currency.
This applies to both the dollar and the euro – the explanation is the same. At the same time, our economy is not at its strongest. It does not determine the fall of the ruble against the dollar by such magnitudes. It can identify instability, but not such a decline. Also, the psychological factors we see from the same traders are already included.
Last week, the ruble fell sharply and rapidly against the dollar. Now it has continued, and the concern lies in the fact that the decline has not stopped even with the weekend trading halt. As a rule, if there is such an information background of negative and increased demand, then either such a pause in trading occurs on a calendar basis, or the stock market is specifically stopped so that the stock market calms down. And all this returns to their former positions.
We see that the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar is determined by increasing, rushing demand and rapid factors. It is possible that they will continue tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.
Then you will have to suspend currency trading, take a break from the stock market, so that the dollar will return – it can stand at about 95 rubles. Therefore, a clear forecast cannot be given because there are no economic support points that you can rely on and tell what will happen.
I think that the decline of the ruble against the dollar will continue for 2-3 more days. It’s hard to say how intense it will be. The next two options:
1) The exchange will be stopped. According to stock trading rules, when there is a strong drop, the trading is stopped, a respite is given and recovery processes take place.
2) Or the dollar will indeed reach its peak, because the informational background cannot last forever, sometimes it will stumble over its limits and a correction will begin.
I think we will see the ruble weaken against the dollar in 2-3 days and then certain actions will take place according to one of these two scenarios and the ruble will bounce back against the dollar. Same for the euro.
It is very difficult to make a forecast for autumn under such conditions, because our knowledge is full of unpredictable events that are not very positive.
However, there are no deep, serious economic factors other than the fact that our economy still cannot get out of a near-zero development situation and recession. Although this is called an active stagnation, it is still a stagnation as the American economy shows more dynamic characteristics. Although it has its own problems, the dynamics is more positive compared to the Russian economy, which determines the strengthening of the dollar against the ruble. Forecasting is the most inopportune action at a time when deceitful factors prevail and set the course.
If we can get our businessmen out of their slumber and eventually start acting dynamically, the situation will improve. But that depends on the “if”. It is impossible to make a prediction without it. They have been in stagnation for a long time, waiting for something or someone to help them and support them in some way. Instead of acting on their own and tackling the challenges that come their way.
Therefore, entrepreneurs should not be fed with teaspoons as they are used to, but behave like businessmen.
It is bad for the economy as a whole because exporters benefit from the depreciation of the ruble against the dollar. They receive more rubles in the currency received. For example, oil is sold for dollars – they buy dollars, euros or yuan and convert them into rubles. Because the ruble is cheaper, you can buy more for the same ruble per unit of currency. And there are rubles in the country, which means exporters feel freer here.
But importers, that is, those who import certain goods into the country, lose exactly the same amount. Also, those who import goods from the consumer market lose (which is directly reflected in the inflationary rise in prices) and industrial enterprises that need to develop, which need to import machine tools, imported equipment.
It becomes more expensive, it becomes more difficult to import – these prices are shifted to manufactured products, which additionally contributes to increased prices, i.e. inflation.
That is, our exporters that we like to talk about win, but the same amount that we don’t like to talk about, the importers lose. Therefore, it is not worth rejoicing at the weakening of the ruble.
And after an increase in inflationary trends, the Central Bank will be right there and raise the key rate – and certainly raise it, referring to inflationary pressure – and this will have a restrictive effect on the development of the economy. So after gaining something from exports, we will lose much more from imports and more than likely to wake our entrepreneurs from their slumber.