The sharp decline in inflation in Russia this year was due to the end of “overpayment for the brand”, the entry of new territories into the ruble area, the general lack of demand and the situation of excess supply. In this respect to write Vedomosti cites a study by experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF).
“Of course, on the surface lies the exchange rate factor, which sharply strengthened in the middle of last year due to the exchange rate ‘exceeding’ at the height of the crisis. in the face of a jump in world prices and a shocking contraction in imports. But these are obvious factors,” he said.
Among the non-obvious factors in reducing inflation in Russia was the general condition of the demand gap in the Russian economy in connection with the sanctions restrictions. Also, there was an oversupply. In this case, we are talking about a surplus of raw materials in the domestic market.
The third factor was that many foreign brands left the domestic market and were replaced by Russian companies. Thanks to this, consumers stopped overpaying for expensive brands. The last reason is the increase in demand for rubles due to the entry of new territories into the Russian Federation.
On June 30, Interfax, referring to the forecast of Kirill Tremasov, Head of the Central Bank’s (CB) Monetary Policy Department, reportedIn the third quarter of this year, the increase in consumer prices in the Russian domestic market will be above the target level of 4% on an annual basis.
Former analysts reportedHow inflation has changed in Russia since the beginning of 2023.