Economists presented three scenarios for the development of the Russian economy under the influence of a shock caused by a decrease in revenues from energy exports. At the same time, all options indicate a “paradox”, according to which the prospect of stagnation leads to an increase in investments in the Russian domestic market, informs Referring to the results of a study by Mikhail Andreev, Chief Economist of the Bank of Russia, RBC, and Andrey Polbin, Head of the International Laboratory for Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes at the Gaidar Institute.
The above scenarios differ in the degree of reduction in Russian budget revenues from the export of energy resources. At the beginning of this year, this indicator remained at a relatively high level despite international sanctions, but the study’s authors acknowledge that it could decrease by 40%, 60% or 80%, respectively, in the coming years.
“With a 40 percent, 60 percent and 80 percent decrease in commodity incomes in the long run, GDP decreases by 7.1 percent, 10.7 percent and 14.2 percent, and household consumption decreases by 9.3, 14 percent and 18.6 percent, respectively. However, the decline in exports in the commodity sector is partially offset by the increase in supply in the non-sanctioned non-commodity sector. This is due to the expected weakening of the national currency, which benefits non-sanctioned exporters, as well as lower real wages.
April 5, Ministry of Finance Press Service (MinFin) published information that this month the federal budget of Russia will receive less than 113.6 billion rubles. Oil and gas revenues. For comparison, in March the treasury received less than 39 billion rubles.