Russia’s GDP in 2023 could decrease by 3% as the probability of making “unconventional” economic decisions in the future increases. In this respect writer RBC refers to the forecast of international rating agency Moody’s Investors Service.
According to the agency, Russia’s GDP in 2023 will fall 3% after falling 2.1% last year. This estimate differs significantly from the more optimistic estimates of the IMF, most Russian economists and the Central Bank of Russia. The agency cited in its forecast that Russia may resort to “unorthodox” fiscal policies as the impact of sanctions and the isolation of the economy increase. For example, monetary financing of the budget will have negative consequences in terms of inflation and macro-financial stability.
Market experts agree that the government is very “orthodox” in its economic decisions, borrowing money and taking advantage of the low level of public debt. Also, the spending of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) is quite conservative. Therefore, there are no longer any prerequisites for “unusual” decisions.
Analysts believe that the forecasts of foreign companies do not have an in-depth analysis of the situation in the country. Given that they are made universally for many countries with a certain set of parameters, certain datasets may still differ. For example, in the forecasts of the IMF, which also improves the economic performance of Russia, the economic growth in the world immediately raises the forecasts for other countries. In contrast, Moody’s predicted that in the long run, the Russian budget would depend on the banking sector. However, borrowing from banks will increase the interest burden of the state. Later, that burden will fall on federal loan bonds to bridge the financing gap.
February 24, authors of the French magazine Challenges declarationHe emphasized that the Russian economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of sanctions. As emphasized in the publication material, analysts, who predicted a recession in the Russian economy at the level of at least 8%, made a big mistake, according to forecasts, the decline in the country’s GDP did not exceed 2.2%. According to the International Monetary Fund, this figure will increase by 0.3% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024.