The economies of Central Asian countries will grow the fastest in 2023-2024. On average, the volume of gross domestic product (GDP) of the states of this region will increase by 4.9% and 5.4% in the current and future years, respectively, reported In the estimation of analysts of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
In the press release of the organization, the growth of the economies of countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan was mentioned. At the same time, analysts expect the biggest increase in GDP to be in Tajikistan (+8%). This indicator is followed by Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia (7%), while the economy will grow by 6.5% in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, according to forecasts.
“Central Asian production is expected to increase by 4.9 percent in 2023. <….> The financial institution said in a report that production growth will reach 5.4% in 2024, thanks to planned infrastructure investments, higher commodity prices and the relocation of Russian businesses.
A number of factors will contribute to the high growth rates of Central Asian economies. High oil and gas prices for commodity exporters, labor inflows, an increase in capital and remittances, as well as an increase in intermediary trade are among the key ones, according to the EBRD forecast. EBRD experts also concluded that the flow of capital and labor to the countries of the region was partly due to the relocation of workplaces in Russia.
16 February European Bank for Reconstruction and Development analysts (EBRD) was recorded Projection of a 3% decline in Russian GDP in 2023. This will happen against the backdrop of falling oil prices and Western sanctions. In 2024, the Russian economy is expected to shrink by another 1%.