The updated forecast of the Central Bank (CB) regarding the possible growth in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of the current year may not be realized in practice. The main resource sectors will be in recession, the increase in production in the construction and military-industrial sectors will not be able to correct the crisis in the economy, opens The words of Sergey Grishunin, director general of the rating service of the National Rating Agency (NRA) of the Vedomosti newspaper.
On February 10, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that Russia’s GDP dynamics will be positive in the third and fourth quarters of this year. At the same time, according to the assessment of the country’s gross product as a whole, the regulator gives a symmetrical range from minus 1% to plus 1%.
“The main drivers of GDP in 2023 will be the recovery in construction and engineering within the military-industrial complex, as well as trade. At the same time, resource industries will remain in recession as it takes time to adapt to sanctions. “The NRA estimate assumes a 1-1.5% decline in the economy by year-end,” he said.
NRA analysts’ forecast is based on several prerequisites for a recession in the economy at the end of the current year. Experts at the rating agency suggest that the Federal Reserve leadership will change its key rate containment tactics and shift to a strategy of raising the rate amid rising inflation and the federal budget deficit. These factors, in turn, will affect the decline in productivity in some sectors of the economy.
“Tightening the monetary policy of the currency regulator, in particular, will have a bad effect on investment and construction, and therefore a negative GDP trend is likely,” Grishunin said.
On February 10, Central Bank (CB) head Elvira Nabiullina said that the regulator recognized the risks of an increase in sanctions restrictions against Russia in 2023. However, recently augmented The possibility of increasing the key rate to reach the 4% inflation target in 2024.
Source: Gazeta
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