The ruble may strengthen against the dollar before the Central Bank starts foreign exchange purchases under the budget rule. Such an opinion was expressed by Evgeny Mironyuk, a stockbroker of the financial holding BCS Mir Investments, in an interview with socialbites.ca.
In the first auctions after the Moscow Stock Exchange holiday, the dollar fell by 2.95% to 69.99 rubles at 12:35 Moscow time.
“Under the budget rule of the Central Bank, the ruble will form a floating range until foreign exchange purchases start in favor of the Ministry of Finance. It is also possible as a retrofit for under 70 rubles. per dollar and testing the local maximum of the USD/RUВ pair – 72.91 rubles. per dollar. “There is no exact date for the Central Bank’s foreign exchange purchase yet, but most likely the regulator will start doing it in February 2023,” Mironyuk said.
According to him, at the beginning of 2023, the ruble rate will fluctuate more than in August-November last year.
“The first full session on January 9, when most market participants returned to trading, showed that the ruble will fluctuate against the dollar, euro and yuan. Volatility is likely to be higher than in the period between August and November 2022. Trade dynamics and balance of payments will be an important trigger for market participants. Leading indicators are the spread of Brent to the Urals, which reached 38% with a relatively stable Brent price and data on the dynamics of energy exports,” he said.
Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported that gas exports will decrease by about a quarter by the end of 2022, and Bloomberg reported that the volume of Russian oil exports by sea has doubled by the end of the year. it is associated, among other things, with weather conditions.
“The publication of the Central Bank’s assessment of the January-December 2022 balance of payments main indicators will either confirm or refute this trend. “This will be an important trigger for the future dynamics of the ruble,” he said.