Buy a car or wait? New or used?… – express forecast “Behind the wheel”

About 320,000 new cars were sold in Russia from January to May. In the most favorable scenario, they will sell the same amount by the end of the year, but most likely less. The total drop in sales is estimated at 50-70% (according to the April results we have minus 43%, in May – minus 83.5%).

It is not only the shortage of cars, but also the reluctance to buy them at insane prices. Grant in early June, dealers showed 600 thousand rubles apiece, but they showed only the real price – from 800 thousand. And prices will not fall as long as there is a shortage.

Is there a way out of the vicious circle?

What is going on

There are now few stable sources of new cars.

  • Factories stopped in Kaluga, St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod. Completely curtailed production in Russia by Renault.
  • Eight Chinese brands (including Exeed sub-brand) continue to operate and sell in Russia. But let’s take a look at what’s on offer: 30 crossovers and two pickups, none of which are the cheapest. Expected new items are also crossovers. They are in no hurry to close the vacant niches of sedans and hatchbacks. More likely to bring “trains”.
  • AVTOVAZ and UAZ are working, but with regular interruptions.
  • Kaliningrad Avtotor took a business vacation in May and resumed work. However, he assembled incomplete machines – there are not enough electronic components. And production has been reduced from 900 to about 200 cars per day.
  • The Primorsky plant “Mazda Sollers” after the holidays decided to … extend the holiday. That’s understandable, because Mazda even shut down its Japanese factories all spring (other Japanese firms did the same). It lacks a wide range of components coming from covid China.

It is unlikely that by the end of the year they will overcome all logistical difficulties and open closed factories. It looks like we will have to do without Skoda, Volkswagen, Nissan, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Peugeot for a year or two. And maybe without the “Koreans”. At least, in the previous volumes of deliveries it is not expected.

And on the secondary?

New cars for the first five months of the year only rose in price – by 20-55%, depending on make and model. It was different on the secondary side. March’s rise, which halved prices, gave way to a rapid decline. In April – by 20-30%, in May by another 15% – almost at pre-sanction levels.

Further decline is not expected, as is growth – most likely the secondary market will be relatively stable until September. Unless, of course, important conditions change. Used cars are now available.

The biggest shortage is new cars 3-6 years old with moderate mileage and in “quiet” configurations – without robots, CVTs and turbocharged engines. Those who do not fall into the trade-in will soon come resellers.

The most liquid models on the secondary market*

Fashion model

Residual Value Index, %

1 Porsche Cayenne

113.3

2 Hyundai Crete

112.7

3 Mazda CX-5

112.3

4 Toyota Hilux

110.8

5 Toyota Land Cruiser

109.6

6 Volkswagen Golf

108.8

7 Toyota Camry

108.0

8 Kia Rio

106.7

9 Toyota Fortuners

106.7

10 Mercedes-Benz G-Class

106.5

The Residual Value Index shows the relationship between the current sales price and the price of a new car in 2018. That is, above 100% – the car can be sold for more than four years ago.

* According to the Autostat agency.

Parallel import

Russian manufacturers were temporarily allowed to sell cars without ABS, airbags and converters. But it is unlikely that this will give any significant impetus to increasing output. In principle, people who are used to foreign cars do not want to switch to Vesta and Patriots, so the demand will not grow much.

Parallel import was opened for all others. Simply put, you can import and sell cars and spare parts without permission from the copyright holders. Green light for gray dealers.

The list of allowed for import includes not only almost all brands that have left Russia, but also those that have not officially worked for us for a long time – for example, Acura and Seat. And even a brand that hasn’t existed since 2005 is Rover.

All this is good. First, however, there is not the slightest chance that parallel imports will cover the shortfall of about a million new cars. There is simply no “extra” million for Russia right now. Second, they are sold without a manufacturer’s warranty. And third, more expensive than if the officials were to sell.

They can be expected to introduce a systematic supply of cars in the premium sector – with maximum profit. But no one will compensate for the loss of hundreds of thousands of Logans, Rapids, Solaris and Kashkaevs. If they come to us, then in small quantities Just because they will be missed for a long time “there they have” – ​​the global shortage is estimated at 5-7 million cars.

The revival of the “Moskvich” brand so far with a pitchfork on the water. If the production of something is really adjusted, then the maximum capacity of the factory in the capital will be 160 thousand cars per year. In any case, this won’t happen anytime soon and won’t fix the problem as a whole.

Remember spare parts

Something can be borrowed from the nearest neighbors. Belarus is in the same situation as we are: most of the cars there came from our own factories. In Armenia, the quotas are too small – everything is there, but very little. In the spring it was still possible – and profitable! — privately buying new cars in Kazakhstan. But most likely, gray traders will soon be shoveling all the surplus out there. And they will sell at our market prices.

Some exotic feeders have been mastered. Under the order you can get a car of the UAE market – mainly large and expensive crossovers of Japanese brands. There they are about a quarter cheaper than ours, but the intermediate supplier takes all the difference and a little more. And there are certain risks: an advance of at least half of the total amount is required. And the machines are not adapted to the cold climate.

So in general you shouldn’t count on a revival of the new car market. The lineup will be short and the prices will be high. This year is not the best year to buy a new car. But if you do buy, then Lada is better. On the secondary market, it does not depreciate as quickly, is much easier to sell and there are no problems with spare parts. Even dealers can’t get parts for Chinese cars for months. The best choice in this situation will be the most massive models. And all the Ladas are among them.

Best-selling models in Russia, st.*

Fashion model

January 2022

May 2022

Kia Rio

6206

1202

Lada Vesta

5953

1538

Lada Granta

5526

2305

Hyundai Solaris

4898

754

Hyundai Crete

4153

1104

Renault Duster

3021

561

Toyota RAV4

2762

Lada Nivac

2555

1102

Lada Largus

2237

642

Volkswagen Polo

2161

397

Kia Sportage

560

Kia Seltos

502

*According to AEB.

** Not included in the top 25.

THEY ARE TOO BAD!

The reasons for the drop in sales in different parts of the world vary, but are somehow related to the sanctions that pushed prices up, the supply disruptions and a shortage of new cars. Except in China, where the market is mainly declining due to the outbreak of the corona virus.

In January-February sales were not so bad for everyone. The catastrophe started in April: a drop of 20-40%, and in some places even more. A direct result of virtually every major global manufacturer operating erratically in March, closing factories and shutting down altogether.

There are no special prospects for improving the situation, in addition, Russia has restricted the export of neon, which is necessary for the production of chips. More expensive metals – steel, aluminum, nickel, magnesium. Therefore, one can predict an annual decline of 20-30% for everyone except China.

Decrease in new car sales (January-April compared to the same period in 2021)

  • UK 5.4%
  • Germany 9%
  • Spain 12%
  • Italy 26.5%
  • China 4.2%
  • US 16%
  • Japan 14.4%

  • The simplification of vehicle design has been legalized – and now our car factories live by the new rules. And what will change for car owners in this regard, find out here.
  • “Behind the wheel” can also be read in Yandex.Zen.

Source: Z R

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