the share of Chinese car brands in Russia rose from 10 to 37%. What else can you buy?

In 2021, sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia increased by 4.3%. It seemed incredible against the backdrop of high prices and outrageous dealer markups. We assumed that 2022 would be no less difficult for the market. The Association of European Businesses (AEB) predicted a slight increase – by 3.3%, to 1.72 million cars. But who knew…

Most of the imports (63.7%) come from China. It is followed by Kazakhstan (18.4%) and Belarus (3.8%)

What did you think before?

Sales statistics from AEB have always been controversial: they do not show real sales, but shipments to dealers. In fact, its cars have not yet been found by their ultimate owners. There were also additional additions by representations for various reasons. But this data showed a more or less accurate picture with the hierarchy of brands and trends.

According to the AEB, 400 new electric vehicles have been sold in Russia. Statistics from “Autostat” – 2998 pcs. In particular, 991 Tesla and 435 Volkswagens were sold, which by definition cannot be included in the AEB data due to their unofficial nature.

Last year the AEB tables were no longer relevant. All foreign brands, except Chinese ones, have stopped significant car deliveries. These associations can now only consist of domestic and Chinese brands. And if before the new car market consisted almost 100% of official deliveries, now the role of “gray” imports by private traders and companies is increasing.

These are the AEB figures. In 2022, sales fell by 58.8% to 687,370 vehicles. Only UAZ, Chery and Exeed managed to achieve a small plus. Lada’s market share rose from 21 to 27.4% and rose to 40% in a few months. Haval (together with Great Wall pickups) started occupying 5.1% instead of 2.3%, Geely – 3.6% instead of 1.5% and Chery leads with 7.8% instead of 2.5%. Kia, Hyundai, Renault and Toyota remained in the top brands, but this is only due to the large stocks of cars assembled in Russia and imported before March. Now the roles of these brands are tending to zero. In December, according to the AEB, Toyota sold only 177 cars against 10,369 in December 2021.

New car imports fell 19% year-on-year, but monthly imports have been above 2021 peaks since October

AEB’s forecast is moderately optimistic: they expect the market to grow to around 770,000 cars. It is understandable, because it seems that below it is simply impossible. Yes, and production seems to be recovering. AVTOVAZ promises to issue more than 400 thousand cars. Plus Moskvich, Evolute, Sollers, Avtotor, the expected arrival of another five to seven Chinese and Iranian brands. But who will buy?

AEB plans to include ‘grey’ deliveries in the reporting. In addition, it is necessary to lure all Chinese brands to the association – while there are none.

Real sales

The Avtostat agency analyzes vehicle registration data. That’s real sales. For example, experts counted 626.3 thousand cars (-58.7% by 2021) and 75.2 thousand light commercial vehicles (-47.8%). Total – 701.5 thousand cars. Monthly statistics give rise to moderate optimism. With the exception of a slight fall in demand in October, absolute numbers have risen steadily since May. December was the most successful month since the start of the crisis.

Mass segment models started to take 93% of the market against 90% in 2021. The loss of positions due to premium is understandable: there were no deliveries, prices rose obscenely. The trend is also visible in the drop in the share of diesel cars from 7.8 to 6.6%, as these were concentrated in the luxury segment.

The AEB predicts a turnover growth of 12% in 2023 to 770,000 vehicles. Autostat expects a growth of 4% in the base case, to 650,000 vehicles

In December, the share of Russian brands grew from 21.1% to 37%, Chinese brands – from 9.8% to 37%. Korean brands sank twice, Japanese – three times, European – four times. “Grey” deliveries, according to “Avtostat”, occupy about 12% of the market.

The weighted average price of a new car reached 2.33 million rubles (+17% for the year). This parameter is not derived from recommended prices from price lists, but from real deals. After peaking in the spring, prices fell. This is due to the fact that dealers have tempered their appetite for cheating (for example, they asked 8-9 million rubles for Camry 2.5), and there are less expensive cars on the market.

During the year, the share of new car imports by private individuals increased 14 times – from 2 to 28%. This is “parallel import”, which doesn’t really work for legal entities yet.

It is foolish to make predictions now: who knows what lies ahead? Moreover, everything rests on the counting methods. If the AEB does not change them, these associations lose all meaning. But the main thing is to have something to count.

A picture: Yuri Smithyuk, TASS