Last year, the Russian automotive market shrank by 59% compared to 2021, a total of 687.4 thousand cars were sold, says In the report of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee. The association noted that due to the stall in the supply of foreign cars, car dealerships missed about one million shipments (980,000 units) compared to “covid” 2021.
Previously, the worst year of the last decade in the Russian car market was 2016, when the Russians bought only 1.43 million cars. Since 2012 (2.93 million units) sales have been falling, but in 2016 the situation in the market has changed and things are going uphill in the auto business, they explained the situation in the committee of automakers.
According to statistics, among brands
Among the top five leaders of the Russian car market last year were AvtoVAZ, Kia, Hyundai, GAZ and Chery.
This is the first time the last two car companies have ranked this high. At the same time, the Volga Automobile Plant was the only one that managed to sell more than 100 thousand cars: Lada sales amounted to 188.6 thousand units. and fell 46%.
Kia’s figures have dropped to 66.1k vehicles, despite being about 206k cars in 2021. Together with Hyundai, these three brands became the only brands to exceed the 50,000 car sales limit.
Negative dynamics were demonstrated by almost all companies, except for a few Chinese brands. Thus, the Chery brand increased its sales by 4%, its sister brand Exeed increased by 264% against the background of last year’s low base, Dongfeng (+213%) and Hino (+204%) had a similar situation.
UAZ (+5%) was the only non-Chinese manufacturer whose numbers increased.
Cadillac (93%), Fiat (-91%), Lexus (-90%), Suzuki and Land Rover (-82%), Volvo (-81%), and Toyota, Skoda are the terms that fell the most in terms of percentage. Volkswagen and BMW . Things are bad for sales of Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Renault and other world concerns.
Best sellers
Lada products took the first three places in the list of the most admired models of the market. The Granta model continued to lead in demand in Russia by more than double the margin against its closest competitor, the Niva: 96,000 against 39,000. respectively. Vesta (29 thousand units) took the third place, while Kia Rio and Hyundai Solaris (25,000 and 18 thousand units, respectively) closed the top five.
With the title of “best selling Chinese car in Russia”, the Haval Jolion crossover took the sixth place in the ranking. Then, the top ten were closed by Hyundai Creta, Lada Largus, Renault Duster and Geely Coolray. According to the AEB estimate,
In 2023, new car sales may increase by 12% compared to 2022 and reach 770 thousand units.
“This is an average forecast, neither optimistic nor pessimistic. Such a modest estimate. “We think it is possible to grow over 12 percent under favorable conditions, but in the current situation no one in the world can predict anything,” said AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee Chairman Aleksey Kalitsev. year.
another crisis
It is generally accepted that the first post-Soviet crisis of the Russian automobile market occurred in 2008, characterized by a rapid decline and recovery, said Andrey Terlyukevich, Managing Director of the AvtoSpetsCentre Group of Companies.
“Then the 2014 crisis came and it was local. Despite the slow recovery, the Russian market continued to be a part of the global market,” he explains. – Then official deliveries of cars to Russia continued, local production was preserved.
The 2022 crisis is also local, but the Russian market is already on its own – without the support of major global automakers.”
Now official deliveries are made only by Chinese brands and domestic factories. Terlyukevich notes that the events of 2022, the solvency of the population and people’s faith in the future led to a collapse in demand, which is an indicator of their willingness to invest in it.
The current crisis is associated with a severe shortage of new cars and the departure of most brands from Russia, stronger than before, this has not happened before,
Alexey Starikov, AG Avilon’s Executive Vice President of New Car Sales, agrees.
“It was the shortage of cars that caused such a drastic drop in sales, dealers in the new realities had to urgently adjust deliveries and enter new dealer agreements with Chinese manufacturers within the framework of parallel imports,” the source says.
Scenarios for the future
Sergey Burgazliev, an independent automotive industry consultant, believes that sales of new cars will be even lower in 2023.
“The market is unlikely to grow significantly compared to last year. I am not sure that Moskvich will be able to produce the declared 50 thousand cars, the option is more likely – 20 thousand cars by the end of the year.
The same Haval has logistical problems. AvtoVAZ will also not be able to make 400,000 due to component problems,” says Burgazliev.
Market capacity will not exceed 650,000 vehicles, including vehicles brought through parallel imports.
The specialist believes that although this supply channel may improve the situation, it will not yield more than 5-6% of the total market.
Andrey Olkhovsky, Managing Director of Avtodom Group of Companies, says that there will be no positive sales dynamics due to low consumer demand and lack of supply of world-famous cars.
“Of course, the Chinese, or the so-called Chinese, whose assembly started in Russian factories, will dominate our market this year.
My guess for the proportion of sales shares is 60% “Chinese” and 40% – Russian manufacturers. And that’s more than optimistic,” says Olkhovsky.
Price tags will be rewritten
Olkhovsky is confident that car prices will rise by the end of spring, provided exchange rates remain at current levels.
“At the beginning of this year, car prices were at the autumn 2022 level, because deliveries took place in November and December, when the conversion of the dollar and euro to the ruble was at the level of 60-62 rubles, respectively. With the current exchange rate, it is obvious that there will be a price increase in April-May,” he said.
Andrei Terlyukevich from AvtoSpetsTsentr presents three scenarios for the development of the market this year.
“The pessimistic scenario assumes that demand worsens due to falling incomes of the population.
Plus the rising cost of loans – banks don’t believe customers who don’t believe in investing in the future,” he says.
The base scenario is to keep sales volumes at 2022. It is possible to repeat the result of last year, due to the growth in production of AvtoVAZ, the fulfillment of the plans for the supply of cars of Chinese brands and the assembly of local brands to the declared level, he explains.
“An encouraging scenario with the gradual recovery of the market in the second half of the year and a slight increase (+5%) at the end of the year.
It looks incredible so far. The interlocutor states that he needs at least “peace in the world.”
Alexey Starikov from Avilon believes that the optimistic development of events will be the gradual return of the departed brands to Russia and, accordingly, the reduction of the shortage of new cars. He calls the pessimistic scenario a serious collapse of the ruble exchange rate, which will lead to a sharp increase in the cost of cars and, as a result, a decrease in demand.
The top manager of Avilon added that not only the increase in the supply of new cars to Russia, but also the development of domestic production will help revive the market.
Source: Gazeta
Anika Rood is an author at “Social Bites”. She is an automobile enthusiast who writes about the latest developments and news in the automobile industry. With a deep understanding of the latest technologies and a passion for writing, Anika provides insightful and engaging articles that keep her readers informed and up-to-date on the latest happenings in the world of automobiles.