Avtostat’s latest estimates show that March sales tallied 79,000 vehicles, marking a 43% drop from the same month a year earlier. In the first two months of 2022, demand had already fallen by 12% compared with the previous year.
Analysts attribute the downturn to several headwinds: halted deliveries to the Russian market, disrupted component supply chains, a plunging ruble, and price increases averaging 35 to 45%. These factors combined to curb consumer appetite and tighten availability across many segments.
In March, consumers largely favored models from Lada, Kia, Hyundai, Renault, and Toyota. The sharpest declines were recorded for Skoda, Great Wall, Subaru, Volkswagen, Lexus, Cadillac, and JAC. The sole brand that managed to stay financially buoyant during the month was Haval.
Meanwhile, the secondary market showed resilience, posting a 4.2% rise in turnover in the first quarter. The most popular affordable choices included Lada Priora, Samara, and Granta, reflecting budget-conscious demand amid shrinking new-car inventories.
Given these dynamics, plans to reintroduce discounts on new vehicles, roll out broad financing programs, and narrow dealer margins look plausible. However, persistent supply constraints warrant prudent expectations. Some brands, like Exeed, have already announced programs offering discounts on branded crossovers to stimulate sales.
Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of the automotive magazine Behind the Wheel, observes that fresh inventory remains scarce. The market is largely dependent on imports from China, which cannot immediately fill the void created by the current disruption. Chinese automakers are likely to increase deliveries gradually, a move that will affect both production costs and logistics. Until more product arrives, prices are unlikely to fall dramatically, and buyers will continue to face tight supply and high premiums for desirable models.
In summary, the market shows a bifurcated picture: strong activity on the secondary market and cautious demand on new-vehicle channels. The path forward will hinge on stabilizing supply chains, currency conditions, and the willingness of manufacturers to adjust pricing and incentives in a recovering, uncertain environment.
Source notes: Avtostat data and industry commentary provide the basis for the March and quarterly trends, with additional context from the market editor and leading automotive brands. These observations reflect shifts observed in the Russian automotive sector and are used to illustrate price dynamics, consumer behavior, and dealer strategies during periods of supply disruption and currency volatility.
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