The current upheaval in spare parts supply chains and the shutdown of many car assembly plants have reshaped the power dynamics of the Russian automotive market. Industry observers note that more than half of new car sales now come from Lada and Chinese brands, reflecting a major shift in consumer preferences and manufacturing realities. An expert from Avtostat points out that these two groups are in a sustained growth phase, with the Chinese brands alone capturing about a quarter of the market by the end of August. This trend underscores how import disruptions and domestic production changes are reconfiguring which brands command attention on Russia’s roads today.
Meanwhile, AVTOVAZ products have rebounded impressively, rising from just over 30 percent of new passenger car sales in July to nearly 40 percent in August. This contrasts with earlier years, when their share was far smaller. To put it in perspective, Russia’s automotive market saw AVTOVAZ accounting for roughly 15.5 percent of new car sales in the weakest year of 2014, with a peak in 2020 barely nudging above 21.5 percent according to the AEB. The current trajectory suggests a full reversal compared with that decade, as the brand strives to reclaim and potentially surpass past prominence amid changing supply chains and consumer demand.
Looking at the larger picture, the market’s current orientation appears to be moving toward a broader balance that includes strong positions for both traditional domestic producers and new entrants. The latest figures show a level of market share that, in some respects, mirrors conditions seen in 2005 when foreign cars were scarcer and AVTOVAZ held a dominant 38.7 percent of the total market. Although post-2005 trends saw AVTOVAZ shares drift downward year after year, the present moment hints at a possible upturn. Market dynamics in 2023 are expected to push the Lada and Chinese brands to gain further share as dealerships and service networks expand, and as supply bottlenecks gradually ease in some segments.
Industry voices suggest that by mid-2023 the mix could tilt even more toward Lada and Chinese brands, though the ultimate balance remains uncertain. A key takeaway is the growing footprint of Chinese brands: in mid-2022, the dealer network for Chinese brands was about one-and-a-half times larger than the number for Russian brands, signaling a widening distribution and accessibility advantage that could sustain momentum into the following years (AVTOSTAT analysis, attribution).
- The head of AVTOVAZ announced plans for 2023, outlining expectations for production and market share recovery amid evolving supply chains (AVTOVAZ communications, attribution).
- “Driving” can now be viewed on RuTube, illustrating how digital channels are increasingly central to consumer awareness and brand positioning in Russia’s evolving auto landscape (media references, attribution).