During January and February 2025, Russia imported about 86,000 passenger cars, a figure that signals a cooling in the market after the surge in early 2024. Industry observers describe this period as a pivotal moment, with wholesale and retail channels recalibrating orders, shipments, and credit conditions in response to shifting demand, currency dynamics, and evolving policy influences that affect vehicle affordability and availability.
In the opening two months of 2025, roughly 86 thousand cars were brought into Russia. This is nearly half the volume recorded in the same window a year earlier, when about 168 thousand units were registered, marking a decline of about 49 percent. The pace underscores how buyers and sellers are adapting to tighter conditions, with dealers extending lead times and customers showing caution in larger purchases amid fluctuating prices.
New automobile imports declined by about 62 percent, while imports of used cars were down to about 37,900 units during the same period. The shift mirrors a combination of higher import costs, stricter financing constraints for new vehicles, and a growing preference among some buyers for affordable, pre-owned options as the market recalibrates.
Analysts point to two primary drivers behind the reduced imports. First, dealer networks have built up substantial inventories, which dampens the need for fresh shipments and reduces the urgency for new contracts. Second, several Chinese automakers have started local assembly operations in Russia, lowering the reliance on fully imported models and offering shorter delivery times for popular configurations.
Industry insiders had previously warned that new car sales could weaken further as early as March 2025, reflecting persistent headwinds across the market. These warnings come amid ongoing adjustments in supply chains, consumer credit, and the broader macroeconomic environment, all of which influence buyers decisions about new versus used vehicles.
Analysts note that last year the new-car market stood at about 146,500 units, with a decline of roughly 45 to 50 percent from the previous peak. Projections suggest the market may settle near 80,000 units, implying only a cautious improvement at best and continuing pressure on manufacturers, dealers, and service networks as they navigate lower volumes and tighter margins.
The sentiment remains cautious, with no clear signs of a durable recovery in the key indicators. The automotive sector and its related industries are likely to stay in negative territory for the foreseeable future, as inventories, plant utilization, and aftersales activity adjust to the new reality and consumer demand remains restrained.
In the near term, a sudden rebound in car sales appears unlikely. Buyers are balancing price expectations with financing options, and manufacturers are recalibrating product lines to meet evolving demand while trying to manage import exposure and production costs across a shifting supply chain.
Experts also highlight the potential impact of ongoing shifts in production geography, including the growth of local assembly within Russia. Such changes could gradually shift the balance away from imports toward domestically produced options, influencing both pricing strategies and aftersales support in the months ahead.
Overall, early 2025 data point to a slower pace for Russia’s car market, with structural changes in supply, demand, and production shaping buyer choices and supplier strategies. While some segments may find temporary reprieves through promotions and financing offers, the market as a whole is likely to remain cautious and uneven across regions in the near term.