Price dynamics in the truck market
The main driver of price growth was a shift in the brand mix and the creation of new supply chains. In 2022, overall demand for trucks stayed largely stable as European brands cut deliveries to Russia and domestic manufacturers reorganized the production of locally sourced components. Chinese brands stepped in to fill the gap, steadily increasing their market presence. This shift also prompted a rethinking of logistics and the development of new routes that had not existed at such scale before. A fluctuating ruble added another layer of risk, encouraging importers to price with caution to cover potential currency swings.
Price increases were most pronounced for certain leading models, with KAMAZ trucks including dump trucks and tractors rising roughly 25 percent, and Ural models like low loaders up about 30 percent. European brands such as Scania, Volvo, and MAN saw more substantial gains, ranging from about 30 to 50 percent. Chinese brands showed more modest growth in comparison, with Shacman around 15 percent and Howo about 10 percent. The restrained growth among Chinese brands stemmed from ongoing competition for market share, price competition among importers through equipment subsidies, and end users leveraging new resources to attract buyers.
Price dynamics across popular truck models
For KAMAZ tractors, the weighted average price at the start of 2022 hovered near 7.8 million rubles. Throughout the year, prices fluctuated, finishing at roughly 7 million rubles in December. The same pattern appeared for KAMAZ dump trucks: prices climbed in March and then settled back toward the year’s end. January prices stood around 6.6 million rubles, rose to about 8 million rubles in March, and ended the year near 7 million rubles.
The GAZ truck segment began the year at about 3.5 million rubles and closed at roughly 4.7 million rubles after gains through the year. In the case of Shacman, December 2022 pricing remained at the January level of 8.1 million rubles, with a clear March peak indicating temporary demand shifts.
Expert insights
Nikita Akhmerov, a truck expert with Alfa-Leasing Group of Companies, observes that the price growth trajectory is likely to persist at the 2022 pace. He notes that, all else equal, the market could continue trending higher by around 10 percent for some time. The past year showed that the market can adjust quickly as logistics infrastructure expands, helping to gradually reduce costs and improve competitive positioning. Akhmerov also adds that parallel imports are unlikely to drive major shifts in the trend, though they may contribute an extra incentive to limit price increases.
As the fleet becomes more populated with Chinese brands, the dominant manufacturers are expected to solidify their market positions in 2023 and maintain current pricing levels. He also mentions a scenario where buyers who prefer European brands, doubting Chinese options, are willing to pay a premium for European trucks, even if those are used. Such buyers will exist, though their numbers are not expected to cause a steep price drop. Meanwhile, parallel import sellers may profit by serving these customers, using supply dynamics to justify price levels.