Analysis of the current state and future options for Russia’s automotive industry
The former governor of the Kaluga region reflects on decades of experience guiding major automotive plants. His view is clear: the industry today is deeply woven into global supply chains, and that interdependence can become a vulnerability when geopolitical or economic pressures tighten. He notes that even basic components and assemblies depend on international cooperation, and he urges a more cautious approach to future dependencies.
Recalling earlier periods when leaders like GAZ, VAZ, KamAZ and Moskvich pursued near self-sufficiency, he explains that most parts of a full production cycle were produced domestically, with tires, glass and certain electronics standing out as exceptions. Even then, efficiency came from a blend of local production with selective imports such as tires made at KamAZ. In recent years the industry shifted toward collaboration to keep vehicles competitive, a choice that is often sound in normal times.
But the current environment shows a different reality. China serves as a case in point, having faced sanctions that disrupted much of its internal cooperation. The consequence is a narrowing of options and a heavy reliance on imported components, a risk he believes should have been anticipated. He compares this to the need to acquire fabrics and accessories to sew a suit, stressing that car manufacturing cannot rely solely on external suppliers for essential parts.
When a critical engine factory at KamAZ experienced a fire, the immediate reaction was to seek engines from abroad, a decision that highlighted the fragility of interconnected supply chains. The same pattern appears at AvtoVAZ where localization for certain models lagged behind expectations, underscoring that the entire ecosystem can stall if any link falters.
The central question is what steps should be taken next. He rejects the idea of retreating to past practices, such as reviving outdated engine technology or rolling back safety standards. He argues for maintaining modern safety requirements, noting that relaxing standards would undermine public safety and erode trust in the regulatory framework.
Progress, he asserts, can be achieved by learning from China. Faced with external pressure, China prioritized its own interests and acted decisively. The current environment mirrors similar pressures, with the country challenged by international trade rules and regional coordination requirements. He has participated in discussions that align activities with regional bodies to support industry, but he argues that lengthy approval processes slow down critical decisions.
Today the reality calls for bold moves. He advocates for recognizing force majeure and moving quickly to adapt. He points out that espionage and copying remain persistent, and in his view there is nothing to hide about this practice when it serves national needs. He suggests that copying is a temporary measure that can help rebuild capability while development continues.
Is there a solid technological foundation for replicating complex parts and assemblies? He identifies the primary obstacle as the lack of available production means. Restoring or upgrading essential manufacturing capacity must become a priority, including a modern fleet of machines that can meet the demands of the automotive sector and related industries.
Over the last decade and a half the defense sector has built robust machinery, yet civilian use often shows underutilized assets. In many factories, advanced machines sit idle many days a month. He points to a need for industrial clustering where underused facilities form technology centers that can take on external orders while supporting national tasks. Such clusters would allow a car factory to place urgent orders for prototyping within a network of strong production bases, ensuring resilience across the supply chain.
Where should work begin? He emphasizes starting with critical components such as onboard computers and control units. The issue extends beyond cars to other large projects like road building and infrastructure. If construction equipment relies on imported control units, failures can cascade through maintenance and performance. The same applies to hydraulic systems, a known bottleneck in several sectors.
He cautions against merely simplifying systems. Removing electronics from heavy equipment would hinder compliance with standards and quality expectations, and the result would be subpar performance. He argues that the road to success lies in maintaining high technical standards and avoiding rushed shortcuts that compromise safety and reliability.
The question then broadens beyond the automotive sector. Food production is highlighted as another area with significant import dependency in modern processing and packaging lines. Strategic investment should consider long-term needs, recognizing that spare parts and maintenance will be required well into the future. Without robust food production, the economy could face serious vulnerabilities even if other sectors recover.
From a strategic viewpoint, the path forward demands a careful, selective approach. If full brand recruitment is not immediately feasible, critical collaborations should still be pursued. The possibility of electrification emerges as a viable route, with existing traction battery production capable of expansion to reduce costs. The country possesses raw materials and established cooperation with partners, creating a foundation for broader adoption of electric propulsion.
Yet production capacity is only part of the equation. Expertise and know-how matter just as much. Restorations in design firms previously deemed unnecessary could rekindle engineering capabilities. He has visited many enterprises that are ready to collaborate, including with international partners who share strategic interests. He envisions a future where world-class specialists are welcomed with attractive compensation, secure status, and opportunities for families to relocate, creating a strong talent pipeline.
In summation, he remains optimistic about the automotive sector’s prospects. He believes the industry can rebound if the right strategies are adopted and implemented with precision. The overarching message is simple: seize opportunities, build real capability, and nurture the people who form the backbone of innovation. The discussion closes with a nod to ongoing coverage and further reflections from industry observers in related forums, including perspectives shared on popular platforms such as Yandex.Zen.
- “Behind the wheel” can also be read in Yandex.Zen