The surge in car prices during 2022 was driven mainly by widespread uncertainty in supply chains, persistent logistics challenges, and difficulties in importing both vehicles and their components. Add to this the volatility of the foreign exchange market, where exchange rates swung unpredictably, and it becomes clear why price instability spread across the market. Since then, the market has begun to settle. The cadence is slowly normalizing, enabling more orderly conditions and giving sellers a better chance to make forecasts that are reasonably accurate and easier to rely on for planning purposes.
What happened in 2022 left a clear imprint on price charts for popular models. It is notable that the most dramatic price shifts occurred in the budget segment, where high demand collided with supply constraints. The price growth pattern is visible when examining the charts for entry-level models. Take the Kia Rio as an example of how affordability intersected with supply fragility, which produced sharper movements in its price trajectory than many midrange or premium models.
Similarly, the Volkswagen Tiguan’s price trajectory proved volatile in the early period, with a noticeable pullback later in 2022 as the market moved toward a plateau. By year-end, price levels for this model had stabilized to a more predictable range, reflecting a return to normalcy after the earlier distortions caused by disruptions in production and shipping chains.
In the premium segment, price behavior proved distinctly steadier. After an initial period of volatility in March, the market generally saw prices easing, with movements largely correlated to shifts in the exchange rate. The Mercedes-Benz E-Class, among others, serves as a representative example of this pattern, where exchange-rate dynamics played a central role in determining observed price levels rather than sheer demand alone.
Expert opinion
Dennis Kokoryshkin, a passenger car specialist with Alfa-Leasing Group, offers a concise assessment of the period. He notes that brands facing stock reductions or production halts tended to command higher prices. He also points out that Chinese manufacturers began to align their pricing with the adjustments seen from Korean and Japanese brands, though the adjustment percentage varied. At the end of 2022, domestically produced cars showed the smallest price increases, with the exception of models like the Lada Largus, which experienced supply constraints affecting production. The longer-term outlook suggests a shift toward lower weighted average prices if 2023 brings improved production and supply levels across the market.
Kokoryshkin also highlights the arrival of a broader range of new brands and models within the 1,300,000 to 1,800,000 ruble price band, a development that could contribute to price reductions in 2023 as competition intensifies. He estimates that prices may rise by roughly 10-15% across segments, but stresses that the forecast remains sensitive to a variety of factors that could either amplify or dampen those gains.
In parallel imports, premium-brand suppliers typically maintain a sizable stock position, enabling more aggressive negotiations and more compelling offers as delivery volumes increase. By contrast, in segments with prices up to two million rubles, the stock reserve tends to be smaller, which often translates into more stable pricing and fewer discounts. As the market absorbs more Chinese-built vehicles, the expectation is that prices for Korean and Japanese cars could ease. This shift would be accompanied by a robust warranty framework, a broad feature set, design variety, and a wide model range—elements that historically support sustained consumer interest. The data also show a growing share of Chinese manufacturers in the overall passenger car mix, a trend that appears to persist month after month.