At a recent dealer conference in Sochi, AvtoVAZ unveiled the Lada X-Cross 5, a future-oriented crossover that borrows styling cues from the FAW Bestune T77. A photo and video reveal of the new model circulated via social channels, highlighting the rapid pace at which the brand aims to bring its lineup to market. Production readiness for SKD assembly of Lada-branded vehicles at the former Nissan site in St. Petersburg is slated to begin toward the end of May.
Industry analyst Sergey Burgazliev argues that, in the mid term, moving to Chinese platform architecture appears nearly inevitable. The high cost of developing a fresh car platform, coupled with AvtoVAZ’s current design constraints, makes in-house engineering challenging. Burgazliev notes that AvtoVAZ has limited expertise left in engineering and tech, and any new developments may require collaboration with partners from friendly nations, especially China, Turkey, India, and potentially Egypt. He suggests the company will probably refine its existing model range first and extend production for as long as feasible before transitioning to a Chinese-based technical foundation.
Burgazliev predicts the Granta could remain in production for 3-4 more years thanks to affordability and state support, but the Vesta faces stiffer competition, complicating its longer-term viability. He adds that a five-year horizon is possible, after which Chinese partners could oversee further development of AvtoVAZ vehicles.
Developing a ground-up platform is estimated at roughly 1.5-2 billion dollars. This would cover the body, suspension, and interior design, with the possibility of using existing components such as engines and transmissions. A cosmetic modernization, including a Lada-branded exterior, could accompany the transition. Return on investment would be achieved when annual volumes reach about 1.2-1.4 million vehicles.
In this scenario, continuing cooperation with FAW remains advantageous. FAW not only supplies car kits but also has the capability to develop new cars and, crucially, owns its own vehicle components. A faster, more cost-effective route could be achieved through a FAW partnership than by building a Russian program from scratch.
The strength of the current AvtoVAZ lineup lies in its ability to be manufactured under lean conditions, even if simplified. Igor Morzharetto, an analyst from Avtostat, agrees that the cost of a new platform makes an immediate shift to a Chinese-based solution likely in the near future.
Morzharetto emphasizes that AvtoVAZ faces a tough situation. A prior plan to switch to a Renault-based CMF-B platform represented a promising path, but today, creating a new platform independently would require substantial investment. A cooperative approach with Chinese manufacturers, who have a habit of accelerating model introductions for the Russian market ahead of Europe, is seen as a practical alternative.
Experience from markets in the region shows that older designs can be produced to meet evolving safety standards while remaining economical. The Vesta, in theory, could continue production for a longer period, though this raises questions about the reliability of new suppliers. The company recently postponed a corporate holiday toward the end of spring to prevent downtime caused by component shortages, allowing time to test new suppliers and build component stock for the latter half of the year.
Formerly under Nissan ownership, the St. Petersburg plant, in collaboration with FAW, supports SKD assembly that helps bring new models to market quickly and allows for production adjustments if components falter. However, some observers remain skeptical about fully embracing Chinese platforms in the near term. There is a belief that future offerings would diverge from today’s low-cost Lada models, focusing instead on higher-end segments that will not directly compete with Granta and Niva.
Industry voices also highlight a state interest in supporting SKD assembly of Chinese-made vehicles to bolster production capacity and stimulate technology transfer. AvtoVAZ is seen as a potential catalyst for adopting new technologies through localization and modernization of existing ranges, including the possibility of applying localized engines or transmissions to models such as the Vesta.
The broader implication is that AvtoVAZ could reposition itself by negotiating access to tool kits and the necessary technical documentation to localize, upgrade, and integrate foreign designs. This could enable current models to receive new life through modernization, extending their market relevance while the company explores deeper collaborations with FAW or other partners to realign its product strategy with a changing global auto landscape.