Japan’s 2024 Car Trade Shift with Russia Highlights a Slowing Market and Growing Parts Trade
In July 2024, Japan cut the delivery of passenger cars to Russia by 34.3 percent compared with the same month a year earlier, according to data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance cited by TASS. This drop marks a significant shift in one of the key components of bilateral trade between the two nations during that period.
Conversely, shipments of automobile spare parts from Japan to Russia rose by 13 percent in July 2024 versus July 2023. The contrasting trend between finished vehicles and replacement components suggests a pivot in demand patterns within the Russian automotive sector, with parts continuing to move even as passenger car volumes slow down.
Earlier assessments indicated that the total cost for Russians to purchase new and used cars in the first half of 2024 would amount to about 6.93 billion rubles. Russians spent roughly 37 percent of this sum on new cars, which equates to around 2.59 billion rubles. In 2023, the overall market capacity stood at 12.64 trillion rubles, and new cars represented about 27 percent of that figure, or 3.37 trillion rubles in value terms. These numbers illustrate the broader mix of demand within the market and hint at the scale of activity that could resume if conditions improve for imports and consumer confidence.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade projected a gradual return for the Russian car market, with potential sales reaching about 1.3 million units in 2024. Officials noted that by 2026 the market could align with the average annual sales seen between 2015 and 2021. They also forecast a steady growth trajectory of roughly 1 percent per year beginning in 2027. According to these projections, by 2030 the Russian car market might approach 1.8 million cars sold annually, and by 2035 sales could rise to 1.9 million vehicles per year. These estimates reflect a cautious optimism about market normalization and the gradual restoration of consumer and dealer activity over the coming decade.
Historical observations have also pointed to the popularity of certain used vehicles in Russia, with the Chevrolet Cruze noted as a frequently sold model in the second-hand market. This insight into consumer preferences helps round out the picture of how import patterns and domestic demand interact in the evolving automotive landscape.