Forecasts for Russia’s New Car Market in 2022 and Market Dynamics Through Early 2022
In 2022, industry observers anticipated that Russia’s market for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles would finish the year at around 800,000 to 850,000 units, a drop of roughly half from the 2021 level. This projection came from Alexei Kalitsev, who leads Hyundai Motor CIS and also chairs the Automobile Manufacturers Committee within the European Business Association. The outlook reflected fragile inventories, ongoing supply chain constraints, and the wider economic pressures tied to sanctions and domestic production conditions. The assessment was reported by major Russian trade channels and summarized for an audience at the annual gathering of industry leaders.
Kalitsev noted that the next quarter would reveal clearer signals about stock levels. He did not expect a sharp improvement in the immediate term, suggesting that the second quarter would be a transition period during which existing production and supply issues would be addressed. In a positive scenario, the market could stabilize around 0.8 to 0.85 million units for the year. If production resumption lagged beyond the third quarter, the market would likely shrink further. These cautions were reported by TASS in coverage of Kalitsev’s remarks delivered at the Russian Car Dealers Association convention held in Moscow on April 20. The analysis underscored the uncertainty facing manufacturers as sanctions and supply disruptions continued to influence factory downtime and component availability.
Historical results show that at the end of 2021, Russia’s market stood at 1.67 million new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, marking a year of positive momentum relative to 2020, with an increase of about 4.3 percent. The year 2022 began with a different trajectory, as the sector faced immediate headwinds from tightening Western sanctions and the ensuing interruptions in parts supply that affected many assembly lines across the country.
From January through March 2022, sales totaled 277,332 units, a year-over-year decrease of 28.4 percent compared with the first quarter of 2021. March 2022 alone experienced a steep fall of 62.9 percent, a decline linked to the ongoing supply restrictions and factory downtime that limited production capacity across multiple plants. The combination of sanctions, disrupted logistics, and the slow recovery in consumer demand helped to deepen the market decline during this period, leading observers to question the pace at which production could normalize. Industry leaders emphasized the need for synchronized policy measures and robust local components supply to stabilize operations and support a return to healthier volumes.
- Driving headlines were shared via messaging platforms including Viber, which helped distribute timely updates to stakeholders during the period of volatility.